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Benched Old-Generation Seat v6b · Current-Corpus Session Replay · Model diagnostics
BENCHED · 2026-04-27 → 2026-07-16 · 56 days
One observation is one active replay day (one daily basket); the hub's 56 observations are 56 days. Metrics use 252 daily observations/year. benched 2026-06-30; replayed on current corpus — corpus-drift caveat applies; July continuation shown for seat-review comparison Returns and observation rankings are gross, before execution costs.
Total return+166.9%Span-true compounded return · not annualized
Annualized CAGR—Suppressed because the observed span is under 180 calendar days
QuantStats Sharpe (i.i.d.)6.33Annualized at 252 daily periods/year
QuantStats Sortino11.62Same 252-period annualization
Entry-cohort t-stat3.00Entry-date-cohort bootstrap · 10,000 draws · 56 entry-date cohorts
Sortino convention: QuantStats Sortino is mean return divided by downside deviation, multiplied by √(periods/year). This differs from plain-downside conventions.
Inference note: overlapping holding periods can make an i.i.d. Sharpe optimistic. The t-stat bootstraps entry-date cohorts and preserves every cohort's full marked path.
Best and worst days
Observation return follows the verified construction; a paired trade is the sum of its equal-notional short and synthetic-control legs.
Top 10 best
| Ticker | Entry date | Return |
|---|
| BASKET | 2026-05-21 | +15.93% |
| BASKET | 2026-05-11 | +10.55% |
| BASKET | 2026-06-29 | +7.88% |
| BASKET | 2026-07-08 | +7.41% |
| BASKET | 2026-07-01 | +7.39% |
| BASKET | 2026-05-14 | +7.18% |
| BASKET | 2026-06-02 | +6.33% |
| BASKET | 2026-07-02 | +6.12% |
| BASKET | 2026-05-29 | +6.11% |
| BASKET | 2026-06-01 | +5.55% |
Top 10 worst
| Ticker | Entry date | Return |
|---|
| BASKET | 2026-06-23 | -9.90% |
| BASKET | 2026-07-15 | -9.32% |
| BASKET | 2026-05-12 | -6.73% |
| BASKET | 2026-04-29 | -5.77% |
| BASKET | 2026-07-10 | -4.63% |
| BASKET | 2026-06-16 | -4.63% |
| BASKET | 2026-06-12 | -4.51% |
| BASKET | 2026-06-04 | -3.69% |
| BASKET | 2026-07-09 | -3.24% |
| BASKET | 2026-06-26 | -2.94% |
Exposure profile
| Measure | Mean | Median | Peak |
|---|
| Daily gross $ | $50,000 | $50,000 | $50,000 |
| Concurrent position count | 5.0 | 5 | 5 |
| Single-name share | — | — | 20.0% · POET · 2026-04-27 |
Position count is the number of model trades at each daily mark; one matched-control basket counts as one paired position. Single-name share aggregates repeated ticker exposure before dividing by daily gross.
Daily exposure (56 marks)
| Date | Gross $ | Positions | Top name | Top-name share |
|---|
| 2026-04-27 | $50,000 | 5 | POET | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | $50,000 | 5 | POET | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | $50,000 | 5 | BE | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | $50,000 | 5 | FCEL | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | $50,000 | 5 | RDDT | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | $50,000 | 5 | AAOI | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | $50,000 | 5 | CRCL | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | $50,000 | 5 | AMD | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-07 | $50,000 | 5 | OSS | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | $50,000 | 5 | RKLB | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-11 | $50,000 | 5 | MRAM | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | $50,000 | 5 | FLNC | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-13 | $50,000 | 5 | NVTS | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | $50,000 | 5 | POET | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-15 | $50,000 | 5 | AAOI | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-18 | $50,000 | 5 | POET | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-19 | $50,000 | 5 | FCEL | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-20 | $50,000 | 5 | AMPG | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | $50,000 | 5 | TE | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-22 | $50,000 | 5 | FCEL | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-26 | $50,000 | 5 | JLHL | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-27 | $50,000 | 5 | FCEL | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-28 | $50,000 | 5 | SNOW | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-29 | $50,000 | 5 | DELL | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-01 | $50,000 | 5 | UMAC | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | $50,000 | 5 | MRVL | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-03 | $50,000 | 5 | FLNC | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-04 | $50,000 | 5 | FLNC | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | $50,000 | 5 | PL | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-08 | $50,000 | 5 | AAOI | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-09 | $50,000 | 5 | INTC | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-10 | $50,000 | 5 | SMCI | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-11 | $50,000 | 5 | SMCI | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-12 | $50,000 | 5 | RKLB | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-15 | $50,000 | 5 | SNDK | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-16 | $50,000 | 5 | SPCE | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-17 | $50,000 | 5 | AAOI | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-18 | $50,000 | 5 | QURE | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-22 | $50,000 | 5 | HIMS | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-23 | $50,000 | 5 | ARQQ | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-24 | $50,000 | 5 | SMCI | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-25 | $50,000 | 5 | MU | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | $50,000 | 5 | ARQQ | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | $50,000 | 5 | CRWD | 20.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | $50,000 | 5 | OUST | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-01 | $50,000 | 5 | BE | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-02 | $50,000 | 5 | OUST | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-06 | $50,000 | 5 | NBIS | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-07 | $50,000 | 5 | RGC | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-08 | $50,000 | 5 | PENG | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-09 | $50,000 | 5 | RGC | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-10 | $50,000 | 5 | RGC | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-13 | $50,000 | 5 | RGC | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-14 | $50,000 | 5 | IBM | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-15 | $50,000 | 5 | AEHR | 20.0% |
| 2026-07-16 | $50,000 | 5 | ATAI | 20.0% |
SPY weekly regime split
SPY direction is local, read-only daily_ohlc close-to-close by Friday week. The final partial week uses its last available close.
| Regime | Weeks | Model total | Avg model week | Hit rate | Ann. Sharpe | Avg SPY week |
|---|
| SPY-up weeks | 9 | +148.1% | +11.03% | 88.9% | 7.95 | +1.18% |
| SPY-down weeks | 3 | +7.6% | +2.63% | 66.7% | 2.68 | -1.81% |