@aleabitoreddit aleabitoreddit
Deep AI/photonics supply-chain thesis-builder who perma-longs CPO chokepoint small-caps
Writes long-form fundamental and supply-chain theses on the
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 75% hit rate, +0.85% mean alpha, trader score +0.94. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -5.4% since posting (mean over 135 mentions with price data).
The author is overwhelmingly focused on AI hardware chokepoints, especially CPO lasers, InP substrates, optical transceivers, and adjacent European supply-chain beneficiaries. Core disclosed longs include SIVE, AAOI, IQE, AXTI, LPK, XFAB, and NBIS, with the most distinctive call that CW laser scarcity will rerate SIVE and AAOI as hyperscaler and AMD/NVDA demand accelerates. Late-week activity added a possible concentration increase into ACMR while continuing to press SIVE and LPK undervaluation themes.
Conviction intensified in optical bottlenecks, especially SIVE and AAOI, with repeated late-week support from analyst updates, position disclosures, and recap posts. The author disclosed holds across SIVE, AAOI, AXTI, LPK, and XFAB, and made an explicit add-style call around increasing concentration in ACMR. Bearish or skeptical energy stayed concentrated in SPCX valuation and IREN dilution risk rather than broad AI hardware.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | LPK | @aleabitoreddit | +0.45 | Author sees positive readthrough for glass substrate supply chain and names owned LPK as beneficiary. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @aleabitoreddit | +0.20 | Says NVDA and optical companies refuted negative SemiAnalysis claims after sector crash. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @aleabitoreddit | +0.45 | Author expects sharp V recovery after Meta overcapacity narrative and cites accelerating compute capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @aleabitoreddit | +0.65 | Author expects sharp V recovery after Meta overcapacity narrative and cites accelerating compute capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CCXI | @aleabitoreddit | +0.35 | Robotics sector excitement described as palpable, driven partly by CCXI and humanoid companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @aleabitoreddit | +0.35 | Pushes back on Meta AI race and capex bear narrative, saying quote referred to industry as a whole. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @aleabitoreddit | +0.55 | Claims upcoming Meta AI model caught up to GPT 5.5 and uses order of magnitude more compute. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AXTI | @aleabitoreddit | +0.50 | AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with COHR including $22.3M prepayment. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | COHR | @aleabitoreddit | +0.10 | AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with COHR including $22.3M prepayment. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MRVL | @aleabitoreddit | +0.30 | Recalls Jensen's comment that MRVL could be the next $1T company when it drops. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CCXI | @aleabitoreddit | +0.30 | BlueCrest/Michael Platt disclosed a 5.6% stake in CCXI. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AMD | @aleabitoreddit | +0.05 | Argues Bloomberg-driven semi selloff is misunderstood and markets are overreacting. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AEHR | @aleabitoreddit | +0.20 | Argues Bloomberg-driven semi selloff is misunderstood and markets are overreacting. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MRVL | @aleabitoreddit | +0.20 | Argues Bloomberg-driven semi selloff is misunderstood and markets are overreacting. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @aleabitoreddit | +0.20 | Argues Bloomberg-driven semi selloff is misunderstood and markets are overreacting. | — | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.