Outcome adjudication
Track record
Every hypothesis our system extracts carries an enforced magnitude and horizon. The scorer joins each claim to daily prices and SPY, so “confirmed” isn't free in a momentum tape — the excess column is what counts.
hypotheses scored
63,201
resolved
42,939
confirmed
10,054
refuted
32,885
confirm rate
23%
avg excess (resolved)
+0.73%
The crowd's base rate is the honest headline: most tweeted claims do not beat SPY over their own stated horizon. Everything below is about finding the slices that do. Full claim-level database: Hypotheses.
By claim basis what kind of argument works
| claim basis | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unspecified | 15,904 | 12,692 | 3,476 | 9,216 | 27% | +2.89% |
| mechanics | 962 | 401 | 107 | 294 | 27% | +3.93% |
| positioning | 6,323 | 4,422 | 1,100 | 3,322 | 25% | +1.68% |
| technical | 9,358 | 6,315 | 1,533 | 4,782 | 24% | +0.22% |
| catalyst | 8,110 | 5,414 | 1,236 | 4,178 | 23% | -0.97% |
| macro_rotation | 2,914 | 2,194 | 443 | 1,751 | 20% | -0.85% |
| fundamental | 19,630 | 11,501 | 2,159 | 9,342 | 19% | -0.74% |
By claimed magnitude
| claimed magnitude | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| small | 6,943 | 5,567 | 1,783 | 3,784 | 32% | +2.50% |
| unspecified → scored as medium | 15,904 | 12,692 | 3,476 | 9,216 | 27% | +2.89% |
| medium | 27,042 | 18,906 | 4,118 | 14,788 | 22% | +0.18% |
| large | 12,837 | 5,634 | 668 | 4,966 | 12% | -4.13% |
| extreme | 475 | 140 | 9 | 131 | 6% | +4.79% |
By direction
| direction | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 19,137 | 12,690 | 3,321 | 9,369 | 26% | -0.75% |
| bull | 44,064 | 30,249 | 6,733 | 23,516 | 22% | +1.35% |
Authors with an adjudicated record ranked by confirm rate — under 25 resolved claims is tagged (small sample); treat those rates as noise
| author | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @mcinnes_danny (small sample) | 12 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 82% | +41.45% |
| @i_manage_risk (small sample) | 18 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 75% | +25.76% |
| @latent_value7 (small sample) | 18 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% | +40.50% |
| @crafttheedge (small sample) | 13 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% | +18.01% |
| @hermita_akiba (small sample) | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70% | +21.14% |
| @btcai156 (small sample) | 21 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 67% | +9.01% |
| @dhh (small sample) | 18 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 65% | +16.70% |
| @brucetennen (small sample) | 15 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 64% | +14.72% |
| @fcbz14 | 30 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 62% | +22.73% |
| @ashonzay_7 (small sample) | 16 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | +40.06% |
| @centerpointsec (small sample) | 16 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | +35.58% |
| @mrland_news (small sample) | 25 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 60% | +59.27% |
| @kajiastic (small sample) | 21 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 60% | +26.96% |
| @tigerlinetrades (small sample) | 11 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +26.18% |
| @4yururin (small sample) | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +3.94% |
| @deepvalue47 (small sample) | 42 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 59% | +21.18% |
| @stockswingalert | 29 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 57% | +29.09% |
| @bknight221 | 50 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 57% | +13.52% |
| @ophirgottlieb (small sample) | 40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 55% | +24.71% |
| @majgeoinvesting (small sample) | 20 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 54% | +3.21% |
| @datruthbomb | 43 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 54% | +15.12% |
| @kristinaparts | 38 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 54% | +18.32% |
| @biggercapital (small sample) | 16 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53% | +3.85% |
| @wolf_tradingx (small sample) | 46 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 53% | +12.51% |
| @rgv_trades | 26 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 52% | +13.02% |
| @superioresearch | 33 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 52% | +15.57% |
| @theshortbear | 85 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 51% | +19.55% |
| @_halaltrader_ | 105 | 88 | 45 | 43 | 51% | +13.11% |
| @davidscottadams | 32 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 50% | +40.62% |
| @bullrunio (small sample) | 25 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 50% | +11.72% |
How to read this
confirmed = the ticker beat its claimed direction and magnitude threshold in SPY-excess terms within the stated horizon. refuted = it measurably didn't. open = horizon still running; stale = horizon passed without a clean resolution. We publish the losses because the base rate is the product.