Outcome adjudication
Track record
Every hypothesis our system extracts carries an enforced magnitude and horizon. The scorer joins each claim to daily prices and SPY, so “confirmed” isn't free in a momentum tape — the excess column is what counts.
hypotheses scored
83,706
resolved
62,243
confirmed
13,590
refuted
48,653
confirm rate
22%
avg excess (resolved)
+0.18%
The crowd's base rate is the honest headline: most tweeted claims do not beat SPY over their own stated horizon. Everything below is about finding the slices that do. Full claim-level database: Hypotheses.
By claim basis what kind of argument works
| claim basis | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unspecified | 15,904 | 12,910 | 3,587 | 9,323 | 28% | +3.04% |
| mechanics | 1,903 | 1,154 | 287 | 867 | 25% | -1.53% |
| positioning | 8,406 | 6,536 | 1,590 | 4,946 | 24% | +0.98% |
| technical | 12,805 | 9,423 | 2,175 | 7,248 | 23% | -0.31% |
| catalyst | 13,432 | 9,734 | 2,131 | 7,603 | 22% | -1.39% |
| macro_rotation | 3,272 | 2,717 | 526 | 2,191 | 19% | -0.66% |
| fundamental | 27,984 | 19,769 | 3,294 | 16,475 | 17% | -0.71% |
By claimed magnitude
| claimed magnitude | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| small | 11,919 | 9,251 | 2,819 | 6,432 | 30% | +0.95% |
| unspecified → scored as medium | 15,904 | 12,910 | 3,587 | 9,323 | 28% | +3.04% |
| medium | 37,219 | 27,475 | 5,827 | 21,648 | 21% | -0.06% |
| large | 17,882 | 12,175 | 1,337 | 10,838 | 11% | -2.86% |
| extreme | 782 | 432 | 20 | 412 | 5% | +0.05% |
By direction
| direction | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 26,105 | 18,869 | 4,545 | 14,324 | 24% | -0.45% |
| bull | 57,601 | 43,374 | 9,045 | 34,329 | 21% | +0.46% |
Authors with an adjudicated record ranked by confirm rate — under 25 resolved claims is tagged (small sample); treat those rates as noise
| author | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @mcinnes_danny (small sample) | 12 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 82% | +41.45% |
| @latent_value7 (small sample) | 18 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% | +40.50% |
| @crafttheedge (small sample) | 13 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% | +18.01% |
| @i_manage_risk (small sample) | 18 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 71% | +23.03% |
| @btcai156 (small sample) | 23 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 67% | +9.01% |
| @fcbz14 | 30 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 62% | +22.73% |
| @mrland_news (small sample) | 25 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 60% | +59.27% |
| @4yururin (small sample) | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +3.94% |
| @tigerlinetrades (small sample) | 11 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +26.18% |
| @index_shu (small sample) | 40 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 59% | +17.00% |
| @kajiastic (small sample) | 35 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 59% | +24.70% |
| @stockswingalert | 29 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 57% | +29.09% |
| @centerpointsec (small sample) | 22 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57% | +31.85% |
| @ashonzay_7 (small sample) | 19 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57% | +38.87% |
| @brucetennen (small sample) | 23 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 56% | +11.56% |
| @jackhuynh (small sample) | 13 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 54% | +13.70% |
| @datruthbomb | 43 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 54% | +15.12% |
| @superioresearch | 54 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 53% | +15.18% |
| @jackprescottx | 87 | 72 | 37 | 35 | 51% | +18.18% |
| @bknight221 | 55 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 51% | +10.34% |
| @davidscottadams | 32 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 50% | +40.62% |
| @dhh (small sample) | 33 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 50% | +11.75% |
| @jasons_chips (small sample) | 21 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 50% | +11.05% |
| @majgeoinvesting (small sample) | 20 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 50% | +3.16% |
| @biggercapital (small sample) | 16 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 50% | +2.85% |
| @cmoney365247 (small sample) | 16 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | +8.40% |
| @pennyboistrades (small sample) | 13 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | +14.50% |
| @jundo1050 (small sample) | 15 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | +12.86% |
| @joinlegendsonly (small sample) | 26 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50% | +16.78% |
| @remotenavigator | 138 | 136 | 67 | 69 | 49% | +9.77% |
How to read this
confirmed = the ticker beat its claimed direction and magnitude threshold in SPY-excess terms within the stated horizon. refuted = it measurably didn't. open = horizon still running; stale = horizon passed without a clean resolution. We publish the losses because the base rate is the product.