Outcome adjudication
Track record
Every hypothesis our system extracts carries an enforced magnitude and horizon. The scorer joins each claim to daily prices and SPY, so “confirmed” isn't free in a momentum tape — the excess column is what counts.
hypotheses scored
42,500
resolved
25,026
confirmed
6,674
refuted
18,352
confirm rate
27%
avg excess (resolved)
+2.05%
The crowd's base rate is the honest headline: most tweeted claims do not beat SPY over their own stated horizon. Everything below is about finding the slices that do. Full claim-level database: Hypotheses.
By claim basis what kind of argument works
| claim basis | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| catalyst | 4,414 | 2,177 | 620 | 1,557 | 28% | +3.63% |
| positioning | 3,765 | 2,154 | 613 | 1,541 | 28% | +0.89% |
| unspecified | 15,904 | 12,690 | 3,475 | 9,215 | 27% | +2.89% |
| technical | 5,587 | 3,035 | 816 | 2,219 | 27% | -1.17% |
| fundamental | 10,774 | 3,963 | 929 | 3,034 | 23% | +2.37% |
| macro_rotation | 1,959 | 1,007 | 221 | 786 | 22% | -1.01% |
| mechanics (small sample) | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | · |
By claimed magnitude
| claimed magnitude | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| small | 4,419 | 3,226 | 1,037 | 2,189 | 32% | +1.17% |
| unspecified → scored as medium | 15,904 | 12,690 | 3,475 | 9,215 | 27% | +2.89% |
| medium | 15,626 | 8,750 | 2,109 | 6,641 | 24% | +1.05% |
| large | 6,373 | 355 | 53 | 302 | 15% | +4.95% |
| extreme (small sample) | 178 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | -6.91% |
By direction
| direction | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | 30,300 | 17,672 | 4,778 | 12,894 | 27% | +3.95% |
| bear | 12,200 | 7,354 | 1,896 | 5,458 | 26% | -2.51% |
Authors with an adjudicated record ranked by confirm rate — under 25 resolved claims is tagged (small sample); treat those rates as noise
| author | hypotheses | resolved | confirmed | refuted | confirm rate | avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @adityainvests90 (small sample) | 39 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 79% | +20.23% |
| @mb_hogan (small sample) | 25 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 75% | +23.30% |
| @i_manage_risk (small sample) | 18 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 75% | +25.76% |
| @dhh (small sample) | 16 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 73% | +18.79% |
| @hermita_akiba (small sample) | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70% | +21.14% |
| @bullrunio (small sample) | 17 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | +20.53% |
| @fcbz14 (small sample) | 30 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 68% | +24.63% |
| @btcai156 (small sample) | 21 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 67% | +9.01% |
| @ibhenryj (small sample) | 28 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 67% | +12.22% |
| @ophirgottlieb (small sample) | 19 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 67% | +34.05% |
| @brucetennen (small sample) | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | +16.52% |
| @tradexwhisperer | 160 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 66% | +23.60% |
| @feroceresearch | 78 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 65% | +27.02% |
| @eliteoptions2 (small sample) | 22 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 65% | +15.82% |
| @nopotechinolife (small sample) | 49 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 64% | +21.47% |
| @alleyesonmela1 (small sample) | 22 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 62% | +18.59% |
| @semicon_eng1 | 244 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 62% | +16.31% |
| @wolf_tradingx (small sample) | 18 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | +14.54% |
| @centerpointsec (small sample) | 16 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | +35.58% |
| @rhorider (small sample) | 35 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | +11.83% |
| @ashonzay_7 (small sample) | 15 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | +40.06% |
| @_halaltrader_ | 81 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 61% | +18.93% |
| @smallcapsnipa (small sample) | 78 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 61% | +16.64% |
| @mcnalliem | 174 | 97 | 59 | 38 | 61% | +19.47% |
| @sakakabu5924 | 39 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 60% | +13.23% |
| @mrland_news (small sample) | 25 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 60% | +59.27% |
| @peterschiff (small sample) | 34 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +14.04% |
| @moneyprinter0x (small sample) | 38 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +23.75% |
| @tigerlinetrades (small sample) | 11 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +26.18% |
| @4yururin (small sample) | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | +3.94% |
How to read this
confirmed = the ticker beat its claimed direction and magnitude threshold in SPY-excess terms within the stated horizon. refuted = it measurably didn't. open = horizon still running; stale = horizon passed without a clean resolution. We publish the losses because the base rate is the product.