Author
@AllVentured AllVentured
grade Ax.com/AllVentured ↗
Mechanistic oil/shipping supply-shock bull and AI-capex bubble bear
Long-form reply-thread analyst building cause-and-effect the
trader score
-1.94
hit rate
25%
mean α
-1.74%
signals 14d
122
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 25% hit rate, -1.74% mean alpha, trader score -1.94. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +6.6% since posting (mean over 29 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Argues AI data centers and LLMs are capital-intensive commodities deserving far lower valuations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Warns that roughly $15T of AI-related market value rests on implausible revenue and ROI projections. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Questions whether AI can generate trillions in annual revenue by 2028 and rejects the implied ROI. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Argues AI compute will face commoditization, excess supply, and falling prices as providers compete. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Infers little demand destruction because inventory drawdown nearly matched the year-over-year import decline. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Rejects required AI revenue growth as impossible amid competition, falling token prices, and compute glut. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Calls AI data centers a capital-intensive commodity business and mocks going levered long hyperscalers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Models slowing AI-lab growth and argues projected ARR requires an implausible reacceleration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | F | @AllVentured | -0.15 | Cites GM's 2008 bankruptcy and Ford's near-bankruptcy as historical risk evidence. | -5.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | GM | @AllVentured | -0.20 | Cites GM's 2008 bankruptcy and Ford's near-bankruptcy as historical risk evidence. | -9.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Argues compounding hardware, deployment, and model efficiency will drive AI task costs toward zero. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Says combined AI growth is slowing and only years of exponential growth could justify current spending. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Uses auto-industry disruption as an analogy for competitors bankrupting incumbent manufacturers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Attributes AI malinvestment partly to participants doubling down to avoid reputational failure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AllVentured | · | Argues subsidized, loss-making AI compute transfers profit away from architects. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.