Author
@AllVentured AllVentured
grade Ax.com/AllVentured ↗
Mechanistic oil/shipping supply-shock bull and AI-capex bubble bear
Long-form reply-thread analyst building cause-and-effect the
trader score
-0.04
hit rate
50%
mean α
-0.02%
signals 14d
38
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -0.02% mean alpha, trader score -0.04. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.9% since posting (mean over 12 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @AllVentured | · | Calls AI-bubble advocates charlatans and argues the sector lacks economic ROI | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @AllVentured | · | Long convexity on both sides of a deep-value versus bubble-stock L/S basket — Plans a structured long/short convexity basket with a one-year horizon | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @AllVentured | · | Laments a market regime rewarding speculative behavior over analysis | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @AllVentured | -0.50 | Questions token-financing economics needed to sustain Nvidia GPU sales | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | RB | @AllVentured | -0.15 | Describes record crack spreads, inventory draws, and gasoline futures near recent lows. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @AllVentured | · | Argues Chinese-chip AI efficiency undermines the AI compute-shortage narrative. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @AllVentured | · | Reports roughly 10 million barrels per day of missing Middle East loadings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @AllVentured | · | Argues rapid visible inventory draws reflect depleted hidden stocks rather than demand destruction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | RB | @AllVentured | +0.65 | After closing prior crude longs, sees gasoline as cheap and expects an interim bottom by tomorrow. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | CL | @AllVentured | +0.30 | After closing prior crude longs, sees gasoline as cheap and expects an interim bottom by tomorrow. | -0.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | NVDA | @AllVentured | -0.45 | Notes every major NVDA customer now has custom silicon, implying competitive pressure. | +2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | SBUX | @AllVentured | -0.70 | Argues SBUX's 42x P/E is unjustified amid competitor growth, overbuilding and structural earnings weakness. | +2.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @AllVentured | · | Mocks extreme valuations for two unnamed money-losing AI companies facing rapid Chinese replication. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @AllVentured | · | Author argues falling compute costs cannot support trillions of AI capex and much spending will be written off. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @AllVentured | · | Efficient frontier models are framed as a bearish read-through for the compute-scarcity thesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.