Author
@AparicioCadiz AparicioCadiz
grade Ax.com/AparicioCadiz ↗
Disciplined value-compounder analyst warning of an AI-capex bubble like 1999
Writes original fundamental theses on quality compounders an
trader score
+0.15
hit rate
45%
mean α
+0.13%
signals 14d
92
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, +0.13% mean alpha, trader score +0.15. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +7.5% since posting (mean over 33 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | NKE | @AparicioCadiz | +0.75 | Store observation leads to a strongly bullish view of Nike bought near $33. | +0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | ABF.L | @AparicioCadiz | -0.85 | Short ABF because Primark sells poor-quality merchandise. — Explicitly calls for shorting Associated British Foods based on Primark product quality. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @AparicioCadiz | · | Forecasts a market reversal favoring profitable high-return companies over speculative disruptors. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @AparicioCadiz | · | Predicts speculative disruptive-technology names will fall 80% to 99%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | RDDT | @AparicioCadiz | +0.85 | Discloses RDDT as a speculative holding and gives a bullish growth and AI-contract thesis. | -7.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | ASTS | @AparicioCadiz | -0.95 | Explicitly predicts ASTS will fall to $6 per share. | -2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AparicioCadiz | · | Argues an unidentified service has weak adoption and excessive valuation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AparicioCadiz | · | Says he remains invested in Greggs but sees less upside after rerating. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AparicioCadiz | · | Contrasts speculative purchases with owning quality companies for long-term returns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ADBE | @AparicioCadiz | +0.50 | Says a long-term Adobe investor has already made substantial gains. | +4.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ADBE | @AparicioCadiz | +0.05 | Notes the issue matters mainly to long-tenured Adobe investors. | +4.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AparicioCadiz | · | Believes a disruptive trend is experiencing bottlenecks and overinvestment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AparicioCadiz | · | Says disruptive-trend companies face overinvestment and fragile market valuations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ASTS | @AparicioCadiz | -0.95 | Calls all four companies nearly worthless as their shares fall sharply. | -10.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | NBIS | @AparicioCadiz | -0.95 | Calls all four companies nearly worthless as their shares fall sharply. | -15.7% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.