Author · brief 2026-06-22

@bioinvestor24 bioinvestor24

Obsessive obesity/GLP1 and oncology biotech analyst with mechanistic, M&A-driven theses

Posts original, data-grounded fundamental analysis of biotec

trader score
+1.35
hit rate
60%
mean α
+1.05%
signals 14d
453

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +1.05% mean alpha, trader score +1.35. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +5.5% since posting (mean over 384 mentions with price data).

VKTX obesity conviction plus oncology M&A spread trades

bioinvestor24 is most concentrated on VKTX as a high-conviction obesity long, while repeatedly arguing LLY remains the benchmark and NVO/PFE/ZEAL are weaker competitors. The distinctive read is an aggressive biotech M&A framework: ERAS/TNGX and owned cancer names should draw bidding interest, while RVMD is expensive and vulnerable to better molecule alternatives. Late-week attention shifted heavily toward ABBV/APGE read-throughs, SYRE/KYMR immunology targets, and ERAS/TNGX versus RVMD oncology deal speculation.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
Obesity incretin competition and VKTX optionality
mixedconsistent184 signals
Oncology M&A and KRAS-glue positioning
mixedconsistent154 signals
Immunology bolt-ons after ABBV APGE deal
mixedintensifying65 signals
Cancer ADC and TCE catalyst setups
mixedintensifying76 signals
⚠ 42% of theme signals are MRK — flag pump risk
Cardiomyopathy data comparisons
mixedintensifying22 signals
⚠ 41% of theme signals are EWTX — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in VKTX obesity, ERAS/TNGX oncology M&A upside, and selected owned cancer names such as MGNX. He explicitly exited or deprioritized RVMD in favor of ERAS despite acknowledging possible large takeout value, while repeatedly flagging RVMD valuation and competitive risk. Late-week posting broadened into immunology M&A after ABBV/APGE, with pump-risk most visible in thin biotech targets like SYRE after a reported 400% move.

Position disclosures5skin in the game
VKTX Disclosed extreme conviction in VKTX as a contrarian biotech long held
MGNX Included MGNX among cancer companies the author owns that JNJ could overpay for held
ERAS Included ERAS among owned cancer companies with potential strategic buyer interest held
TNGX Included TNGX among owned cancer companies with potential strategic buyer interest held
IMTX Included IMTX among owned cancer companies that could attract pharma overpayment held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
Malignancy cases may represent a real mechanism-linked safety risk that could impair approval, labeling, or adoption.
bearHIGH5 co-supporters
The ASCO-linked biotech selloff created buyable dips in selective names rather than a broad deterioration in sector fund
bullHIGH3 co-supporters
Leerink’s much higher target and management discussion support the view that TNGX weakness is a buying opportunity.
bullMEDIUM2 co-supporters
IMA203CD8 Phase 1 data indicate meaningful PRAME cell therapy efficacy, supporting upside from clinical validation at AS
bullMEDIUM3 co-supporters
Cytokinetics’ HCM success is being cast as a direct competitive setback for BMY after BMY’s weaker comparator history.
bearHIGH4 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02REGN@bioinvestor24+0.10Author says ABBV could make over $2B per year for years from the acquisition due to Dupixent LOE timing.
2026-07-02ABBV@bioinvestor24+0.50Author says ABBV could make over $2B per year for years from the acquisition due to Dupixent LOE timing.
2026-07-02ABBV@bioinvestor24+0.35Author sees ABBV's APGE move as aggressive and potentially better than BMY's cautious approach.
2026-07-02BMY@bioinvestor24-0.20Author sees ABBV's APGE move as aggressive and potentially better than BMY's cautious approach.
2026-07-02APGE@bioinvestor24+0.25Author sees ABBV's APGE move as aggressive and potentially better than BMY's cautious approach.
2026-07-02VKTX@bioinvestor24+0.35Author says ABBV likely focuses obesity BD on VKTX, though deal timing is unlikely before full data.
2026-07-02ABBV@bioinvestor24+0.10Author says ABBV likely focuses obesity BD on VKTX, though deal timing is unlikely before full data.
2026-07-02VKTX@bioinvestor24-0.25Author insults VKTX CEO, a negative management sentiment with no trade mechanics.
2026-07-02VKTX@bioinvestor24-0.10Author says VKTX CEO's astronomical ask may be pressuring stock but could prove right by next year.
2026-07-02ABBV@bioinvestor24+0.05Author discusses ABBV/APGE negotiations including AbbVie starting with a $10B proposal and no other offers.
2026-07-02PFE@bioinvestor24-0.10Author discusses ABBV/APGE negotiations including AbbVie starting with a $10B proposal and no other offers.
2026-07-02APGE@bioinvestor24+0.45Author discusses ABBV/APGE negotiations including AbbVie starting with a $10B proposal and no other offers.
2026-07-02RHHBY@bioinvestor24-0.10Author discusses ABBV/APGE negotiations including AbbVie starting with a $10B proposal and no other offers.
2026-07-02LLY@bioinvestor24+0.45Author criticizes sema versus tirzepatide and questions NVO management.
2026-07-02NVO@bioinvestor24-0.55Author criticizes sema versus tirzepatide and questions NVO management.

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.