@BlacklionCTA BlacklionCTA
Plumbing-literate macro/rates trader linking Fed wealth-effect policy to energy and AI risk
Posts dense original macro analysis centered on Fed/Treasury
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 15 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -0.42% mean alpha, trader score -0.61. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.4% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).
BlacklionCTA is mainly trading and narrating macro: FOMC, Warsh/Fed reaction, front-end curves, inflation swaps, oil, and expiration positioning. Ticker-specific conviction is thin, with bearish read-through on NQ_F tape, downside pressure in CL_F, and mechanical options observations in SPCX rather than equity single-name calls. The only explicit directional trade is a SOFR positioning call into the post-FOMC setup, while one position disclosure lacks ticker context.
The window is dominated by macro rates and Fed reaction rather than single-name equity trading. The clearest directional views are bearish or skeptical around NQ_F tape quality and Fed/Warsh communication, while the explicit trade is positioning for a SOFR futures shift after FOMC. Position and news items exist, but ticker context is often absent, so concentration risk is thematic rather than single-stock pump risk.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Says market snapback is not healthy and urges caution. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Says jobs were good but not too good and factory orders were okay. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Says declining labor force participation is key to why U3 unemployment looks strong. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | VIX | @BlacklionCTA | -0.20 | VIX ticking below 16; watch if it keeps coming off. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Supports Warsh restricting Fed communications, a macro policy opinion. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Sees oil curve still above pre-Iran level and doubts timely normalization with Iran running Strait. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Lists Thursday macro docket including NFP, unemployment, claims, factory orders, natgas and bill auctions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Notes NFP tomorrow as key macro event and little reason to trade after. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Skeptical take on returning to a prior regime, but context is thin. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Warsh comments emphasize price stability and no forward guidance; author skeptical on delivery. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Warns undoing crisis policy may create a crisis, aimed at Warsh. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Skeptical of achieving price stability without tightening financial conditions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Quotes Warsh saying central bankers are in price stability business. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Agrees with Lagarde on stagflation question, implying macro caution. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @BlacklionCTA | · | Warsh avoids giving forward guidance during central bank remarks. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.