@Bluekurtic Bluekurtic
Prolific, data-heavy permabull narrating the AI bull market through historical base rates
Posts a continuous stream of chart-backed historical base-ra
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.09% mean alpha, trader score -0.46. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.9% since posting (mean over 35 mentions with price data).
Bluekurtic is focused almost entirely on index-level historical base rates, especially SPY, SPX, NDX, and QQQ after large upside gaps. The distinctive read is that falling oil and bullish gap behavior support near-term equity upside, while the late NDX/QQQ near-ATH surge data is more two-sided than the earlier bullish studies.
The window is concentrated in bullish index base-rate work, led by SPY and QQQ gap-follow-through studies. There are no explicit adds, trims, exits, or position disclosures, and no directional call signals. The only caution is the late NDX/QQQ near-ATH momentum precedent, which the author frames as mixed rather than clearly bullish.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | SPY | @Bluekurtic | +0.00 | References a specific historical date for SPY without stating direction or result. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Bluekurtic | · | Reports rare Nasdaq 100 July 2 performance and own list's daily gain. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Bluekurtic | · | Historical Nasdaq 100 July drawdown statistic explicitly framed as non-predictive. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPX | @Bluekurtic | -0.10 | Reports intraday performance of published stock list versus SPX. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPX | @Bluekurtic | +0.25 | More than 60% of SPX stocks above 50DMA with cited annualized return. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | QQQ | @Bluekurtic | +0.00 | Reports stock-pick performance after the day despite QQQ and SPY down. | -1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPY | @Bluekurtic | +0.00 | Reports stock-pick performance after the day despite QQQ and SPY down. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPY | @Bluekurtic | +0.35 | Seasonality stat says SPY was positive in 13 of 16 years for July 2-10. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Bluekurtic | · | Reports all 16 shared stocks are positive with average gain near 2%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Bluekurtic | · | Reports every shared ticker positive with 2% average gain. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | QQQ | @Bluekurtic | +0.30 | QQQ positive on 10 of last 11 July 2 trading sessions since 2010. | -1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPX | @Bluekurtic | +0.45 | Breadth setup historically led SPX higher over two weeks and three months. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Bluekurtic | · | Reports 14 of 15 July 1 picks currently positive. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TGT | @Bluekurtic | +0.35 | July seasonality win-rate data for SPX and selected stocks. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MA | @Bluekurtic | +0.40 | July seasonality win-rate data for SPX and selected stocks. | +3.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.