Author
@Brad_Setser Brad_Setser
grade Ax.com/Brad_Setser ↗
Forensic macro economist decoding China's hidden FX intervention and trade surpluses
Reconstructs opaque official FX, reserve, and balance-of-pay
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
56
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues open-trade systems require countries to avoid large sustained surpluses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Estimates China's true current-account surplus at $1.2T or 5.5% of GDP. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Calls for Europe to revive currency diplomacy in its China strategy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Endorses a currency accord as a remedy for China's rising trade surplus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Highlights hidden FX accumulation through state banks, pensions and sovereign funds. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Attributes import growth to capital equipment and Mexican assembly of data-center computers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | July U.S. goods trade deficit jumped $17B, led by capital-goods imports. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues trade data should be scaled to GDP and adjusted for tariff-driven rerouting. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Explains the persistent U.S. manufacturing surplus with Canada and retaliation exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | An IMF assessment describes a regressive tax structure imposing an effective rate above 40% on poor households. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | China's export-led pivot is attributed to the property bust and a decision not to stimulate household demand. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | A return to a 20% China tariff baseline is framed as unlikely to produce major concessions from Xi. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Author argues 50% Canadian-auto tariffs are economically unsustainable and directly costly to the U.S. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Frames China's export surge as historically unprecedented and larger than Japan's 1970s surge. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Warns that insurers shifting from public debt to private credit may introduce new risks. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.