@Brad_Setser Brad_Setser
Forensic macro economist decoding China's hidden FX intervention and trade surpluses
Reconstructs opaque official FX, reserve, and balance-of-pay
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, -0.44% mean alpha, trader score -0.92. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.7% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Setser is not making single-name equity calls; the window is a macro brief on China’s external surplus, managed currency, import substitution, and export-led industrial policy. His distinctive read is that China’s surplus is larger and more structurally disruptive than headline BoP framing suggests, with Europe increasingly forced toward trade and currency safeguards. No explicit late-week position flip appears; the thread remains concentrated on China imbalances, autos, and reserve-flow measurement.
The author’s stance is consistent: China’s export engine, currency management, and industrial policy are driving a concentrated global imbalance with Europe especially exposed. There are no adds, trims, exits, or ticker-level calls in the input, and no discrete flip is evident. Concentration risk sits in the China macro narrative rather than any tradable single-name exposure.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Says China import volumes have stalled while exports are up, hurting external demand. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Frames lost German auto exports to China as a demand shock and external-demand risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Says Chinese imports are already about 10% of the EU market. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Frames a major economy losing half a key export market over 24 months. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues Chinese data show autos explain only about one-third of China-Germany trade balance shift. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Discusses fiscal deficit effects on trade deficit and dollar direction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | China may run an auto trade surplus with Germany this year, based on YTD data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Says a proposed tax change would be a huge tax hike on corporate America. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Uses Germany after Plaza as an example of managing currency appreciation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Recommends Tooze essay on financial repression centrality to Chinese model. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Mentions roughly 8 million car swing in global data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues China's surplus is understated and Germany's has fallen dramatically. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Points to IMF end-Q1 reserves data and dollar flow analysis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Says U.S. trade deficit fell from over 3% to around 1% of GDP after Plaza Accord. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues exchange rate adjustment is needed if China's cost advantage is large. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.