Author
@Brad_Setser Brad_Setser
grade Ax.com/Brad_Setser ↗
Forensic macro economist decoding China's hidden FX intervention and trade surpluses
Reconstructs opaque official FX, reserve, and balance-of-pay
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
60
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues China's export wave is broad and auto exports are set to double by end-2026. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | European automakers need investment and insulation to withstand Chinese export competition. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Highlights IMF recognition that China's external imbalances have not narrowed as forecast. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Reports that exports to the U.S. are rising rapidly and have returned to an earlier dollar level. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Examines where China's $130B-plus September surplus was absorbed and notes absent settlement data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | States that September Chinese exports were exceptionally strong. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues China is hiding dollar custody through non-U.S. custodians rather than exiting dollars. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues recent CNY appreciation merely reverses prior euro weakness and economic effects will arrive with a lag. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Reports China, Korea and Taiwan produced a combined $200B September trade surplus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues a weaker real yuan predictably boosts Chinese exports and the current-account surplus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues PBOC management of the RMB materially affects Chinese export growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Argues China needs efficient borrowing to support consumption and nominal GDP growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Reports a large increase in EU organic-chemical import volume from China. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | Europe now imports more machinery, electronics and cars by weight from China than elsewhere combined. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @Brad_Setser | · | China's accelerating auto exports are framed as forcing a structural EU trade-policy shift. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.