Author
@compound248 compound248
grade Ax.com/compound248 ↗
Numerate anon special-situations analyst who reverse-engineers deal math and AI-capex economics
Posts original, balance-sheet-driven analysis of M&A and spe
trader score
-1.37
hit rate
45%
mean α
-0.92%
signals 14d
57
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -0.92% mean alpha, trader score -1.37. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.0% since posting (mean over 21 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @compound248 | · | Relays a disparaging assessment of an AI investment fund's team and allocator status. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | BSP | @compound248 | -0.85 | BSP is expected to become a strong short opportunity. — Explicitly calls BSP a likely fabulous short. | -17.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | TSLA | @compound248 | +0.55 | Uses Tesla's 2018 production recovery to frame operational innovation as defeating shorts | -0.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | BMBL | @compound248 | +0.35 | Reports Bumble deal approval without a minority-shareholder vote | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | BMBL | @compound248 | -0.25 | Anticipates substantial discussion around Bumble but linked context is unavailable | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @compound248 | · | Argues an acquisition strategy could support valuation floors and takeout liquidity | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @compound248 | · | Expects shareholder litigation but the affected company is absent from the reply | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @compound248 | · | Corrects a deal value to $1.3 billion but does not identify the company | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @compound248 | · | Corrects an unidentified deal value from $1 billion to $1.3 billion | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | BMBL | @compound248 | -0.20 | Frames Bumble as a deeply declining but potentially underpriced turnaround | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | BMBL | @compound248 | +0.35 | Reports Blackstone and Whitney Wolfe Herd used supervoting control to approve the deal | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | BMBL | @compound248 | -0.35 | Suggests Bumble shareholders may be underpaid and lacked a vote on the deal | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @compound248 | · | States an unidentified deal was valued at $1.3 billion | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | BMBL | @compound248 | -0.65 | Says Bumble's business is declining massively | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @compound248 | · | Corrects an unidentified enterprise value to $1.3 billion | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.