Author

@conorsen conorsen

Named macro economist threading housing, labor, and the AI-capex wealth cycle into one framework.

Writes original macro and thematic commentary tying US housi

trader score
+0.16
hit rate
58%
mean α
+0.11%
signals 14d
55

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 19 scored bets: 58% hit rate, +0.11% mean alpha, trader score +0.16. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.6% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Highlights tension between a structural normalization thesis and current economic data.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Forecasts an uneven housing recovery based on rents, prices, inventory, employment and wages.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Warns that inflation, AI capex and housing recovery could force a restrictive Fed response next year.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Argues strong assets, wages and employment limit downside in home prices.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Forecasts rising Florida home prices and surging Austin rents next year.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Suggests weak older offices are redirecting demand toward top-quality buildings.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Notes smaller northeastern colleges are closing amid declining enrollment.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Argues another political cycle will improve functionality and that ZIRP and low inflation were destabilizing.·
2026-08-28·@conorsen·Prefers today's productivity and inflation policy challenge to the 2010s problem of insufficient aggregate demand.·
2026-08-27·@conorsen·Argues institutional Austin rents could rise over 20% without exceeding tenant affordability.·
2026-08-27·@conorsen·Describes a macro-policy worldview pivot driven by inflation, rates and deficits.·
2026-08-27·@conorsen·Says Connecticut housing supply remains very low.·
2026-08-27·@conorsen·Characterizes rising housing inventory as normalization but flags it for monitoring into 2027.·
2026-08-27·@conorsen·Expects municipal tension between technology-led savings, staffing and tax constraints.·
2026-08-27·@conorsen·Argues housing supply is returning unevenly, with Midwest and northern metros cooling first.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.