Author
@crux_capital_ crux_capital_
grade Ax.com/crux_capital_ ↗
Deep optical/photonics AI-infrastructure specialist mapping supply-chain read-throughs across a thematic basket
Original fundamental and supply-chain research on the AI opt
trader score
-1.81
hit rate
20%
mean α
-1.60%
signals 14d
90
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -1.60% mean alpha, trader score -1.81. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -8.5% since posting (mean over 65 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | SIVE | @crux_capital_ | +0.55 | Believes SIVE has needed products and a bright future if it delivers on time. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | AAOI | @crux_capital_ | +0.00 | Promotes a historical framework for judging whether the optical cycle could repeat a bust. | -6.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SIVE | @crux_capital_ | +0.00 | Promotes a historical framework for judging whether the optical cycle could repeat a bust. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | LITE | @crux_capital_ | +0.00 | Promotes a historical framework for judging whether the optical cycle could repeat a bust. | -4.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | AXTI | @crux_capital_ | +0.00 | Promotes a historical framework for judging whether the optical cycle could repeat a bust. | -10.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | COHR | @crux_capital_ | +0.00 | Promotes a historical framework for judging whether the optical cycle could repeat a bust. | -5.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SMTC | @crux_capital_ | +0.65 | TD Cowen reiterated Buy/Top Pick and a $215 target while sharply raising earnings estimates. | -6.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SMTC | @crux_capital_ | +0.90 | Revenue, EPS and data-center results beat, with a sharply higher Q3 data-center outlook. | -6.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | SMTC | @crux_capital_ | +0.15 | Highlights anticipation for SMTC earnings without stating a trade or forecast. | +2.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | AAOI | @crux_capital_ | +0.35 | Multiple optical-product ramps, capacity expansion and margin improvement support a strong 2027 SMTC thesis. | -1.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | SMTC | @crux_capital_ | +0.90 | Multiple optical-product ramps, capacity expansion and margin improvement support a strong 2027 SMTC thesis. | +8.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | LITE | @crux_capital_ | +0.35 | Multiple optical-product ramps, capacity expansion and margin improvement support a strong 2027 SMTC thesis. | +7.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @crux_capital_ | · | Identifies domestic U.S. optical-module manufacturing and reduced China reliance as a long-term growth driver. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | MRVL | @crux_capital_ | +0.50 | Presents a detailed long-term Marvell thesis spanning custom compute, memory, networking, optics and valuation. | -8.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | CCXI | @crux_capital_ | +0.25 | Recommends a discussion as useful for investors interested in CCXI and physical AI | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.