Author
@cullenroche cullenroche
grade Ax.com/cullenroche ↗
Rigorous portfolio-construction educator who turns institutional liability-matching into retail frameworks
Educates and argues, mostly in replies, about asset-liabilit
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
36
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.5% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | · | @cullenroche | · | Dismisses Druckenmiller's recurring warnings of a US government-bond crisis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @cullenroche | · | Macro outlook sees no recession, sticky inflation, a Fed hold, weak long bonds and long-run AI optimism. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @cullenroche | · | FRED data show government debt as a share of domestic wealth has been flat for 15 years. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @cullenroche | · | Reports Bessent explicitly said Treasury action was intended to influence yields and signal they exceed fundamentals. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @cullenroche | · | Buy equities rather than 30-year TIPS for a 30-year horizon. — Explicitly recommends equities over 30-year TIPS for long-horizon investors. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues Fed policy, inflation and fiscal deficits dominate Treasury buybacks in determining yields. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @cullenroche | · | Compares inflation, principal-stability, and horizon tradeoffs across bills, bonds, and equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues reserve-currency status has multiple drivers and common military and petrodollar explanations are overstated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues petrodollar, Bretton Woods and military explanations of reserve-currency status are overstated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Explains reserve-currency benefits and structural costs including deficits, strong-dollar pressure and debt issuance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues the US remains exceptionally wealthy despite pessimistic economic narratives. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Calls the US historically wealthy and productive while also endorsing gold as a safe haven. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Attributes dollar reserve status to US economic scale, wealthy consumers, currency safety and deep markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Says US household wealth shows the economic system has benefited Americans substantially. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Views the US as history's wealthiest and most technologically productive economy. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.