Author
@cullenroche cullenroche
grade Ax.com/cullenroche ↗
Rigorous portfolio-construction educator who turns institutional liability-matching into retail frameworks
Educates and argues, mostly in replies, about asset-liabilit
trader score
-1.40
hit rate
0%
mean α
-0.67%
signals 14d
35
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 6 scored bets: 0% hit rate, -0.67% mean alpha, trader score -1.40. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.7% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @cullenroche | · | Acknowledges that the discussed risks are valid but very low-probability tail risks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @cullenroche | · | Warns accelerating inflation can damage bonds through a multiplier effect. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @cullenroche | · | Uses Argentina to argue inflation-linked bonds may fail to protect holders in real time. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @cullenroche | · | Explains bank lending for housing as collateralized private-sector money creation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Attributes a home's gain between inflation and real appreciation driven by local demand. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues long-duration TIPS have tax, duration and tail risks versus equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Prefers equities to a very long TIPS ladder for investors able to accept probabilistic outcomes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Discloses a portfolio structure using short-term bills and TIPS with equities farther out. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Recommends equities or other instruments over TIPS for investors with sufficient risk capacity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Presents a detailed bearish framework for long-term TIPS and favors equities for long liabilities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TLT | @cullenroche | -0.30 | Criticizes backward-looking models that made a 40% TLT allocation appear attractive. | +1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues CAPE informs long-run risk and sequence risk more than short-term returns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues CAPE-driven bearishness may reflect US home bias and misuse of valuation data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @cullenroche | · | Argues money creation cannot create net wealth, which instead comes from private investment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @cullenroche | · | Reiterates the framework that all investing involves active choices rather than true passivity. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.