@dalibali2 dalibali2
Sharp, sarcastic anon SaaS specialist trading the AI-vs-software disruption thesis
Posts bottom-up enterprise-software analysis and two-sided c
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 30% hit rate, -1.50% mean alpha, trader score -2.47. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.8% since posting (mean over 8 mentions with price data).
Author is selectively constructive on BFLY, BLND, SNAP, SPOT and META while negative or skeptical on DIS, ROKU, SNOW and broader software/AI monetization. Distinctive read is a barbell: small product or entry-point longs against skepticism that AI/software narratives are overdone and that legacy media has underperformed. No clear flip is visible; the window is mostly scattered single-name commentary with one explicit BFLY buy disclosure.
No explicit directional calls or exits are present, and the only position action is an added BFLY long on 2026-06-18. The author’s attention is scattered across small-cap entries, consumer product updates, and skepticism toward software, AI ROI, and legacy media. Concentration risk is low by ticker count, but conviction evidence is thin outside the BFLY disclosure and constructive BLND entry comment.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | META | @dalibali2 | +0.35 | Says META proves compute has secondary market if unused, supporting capex thesis. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ORCL | @dalibali2 | -0.15 | Rhetorical question asks if any news or factor rotation could help ORCL. | -1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @dalibali2 | +0.15 | Jokes Meta and xAI should merge excess compute; xAI proxied to TSLA. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @dalibali2 | · | Author says robotics complex thesis has been active for months and is finally moving. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | META | @dalibali2 | -0.20 | Skeptical view that Reels engagement rise may be driven by accidental app taps. | +5.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @dalibali2 | · | Bearish take on GPU rental/neocloud business economics amid hyperscaler capex debate. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | YINN | @dalibali2 | +0.60 | Feels like YINN time. — Brief forward bullish statement on YINN. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @dalibali2 | · | Anecdote suggests AI lab revenue could flatline after enterprise guardrails reduce runaway usage. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @dalibali2 | · | AI capex market gyrations depend on whether investors reward or penalize expected ROI. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @dalibali2 | · | Author estimates AI labs collectively north of $300B revenue in 2026 and questions downstream ROI. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | LLY | @dalibali2 | +0.45 | Author suggests Lilly should be bid up as the MAGA skinny company. | +9.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | CRM | @dalibali2 | -0.20 | Says WDAY and CRM can keep FCF declining by double digits even at low FCF multiples. | +10.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | WDAY | @dalibali2 | -0.20 | Says WDAY and CRM can keep FCF declining by double digits even at low FCF multiples. | +19.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | · | @dalibali2 | · | Says SaaS keeps luring the author back after selling most holdings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | AMZN | @dalibali2 | +0.25 | Says AMZN owners have an advantage in choppy markets after years of pain. | +4.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.