@darioperkins darioperkins
Institutional macro strategist dissecting central-bank plumbing, regime shifts, and AI-bubble skepticism
Writes original top-down macro analysis on monetary policy,
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
This author is not discussing single-name equities; the window is almost entirely macro Fed reaction-function analysis. Their distinctive read is that the next Fed move could be a hike while forward guidance and the dot plot have become less useful, forcing markets to form their own economic view. No position disclosures or directional trades appear in the provided signals.
There are no adds, trims, exits, or ticker-level calls in this payload. The author is concentrated on Fed policy communication, especially hike risk, the collapse of forward guidance, and Warsh-related dot-plot skepticism. The late-window emphasis shifts from next-move hike risk toward institutional communication failure and higher market volatility from reduced guidance.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @darioperkins | · | Notes hospitality jobs fell 61K after prior month's revised +40K gain. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @darioperkins | · | Mocks Warsh's answer on whether AI is inflationary, but stance is not precise. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @darioperkins | · | States the sign is negative, but thread context is required to identify the affected asset or theme. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @darioperkins | · | Discusses BIS AI bubble warning and super-exponential GDP growth possibility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @darioperkins | · | Says updated 2023 data shows productivity gaps look the same and change slowly. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @darioperkins | · | Highlights chart showing UK lacks highly productive mid-sized cities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @darioperkins | · | Criticizes central bank communication around latest policy decision, implying skepticism. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @darioperkins | · | Criticizes administration market intervention across tariffs, FX, oil, crypto, companies, and rates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @darioperkins | · | States the administration is highly interventionist in markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @darioperkins | · | Skeptical that the Fed should simply follow the 2-year without revealing reaction function. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @darioperkins | · | Criticizes Warsh as lacking substance on monetary policy and the economy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @darioperkins | · | Skeptical of Warsh task forces having influence on FOMC policy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | · | @darioperkins | · | Says international investors asking questions about the UK again is never a good sign. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | · | @darioperkins | · | Relays bullish macro/market claims about 4% trend growth and stocks going higher. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.