@Divergent7651 Divergent7651
Cerebral long-only analyst weaving capital-cycle macro into bottom-up value theses
Posts deep, multi-factor fundamental theses and forward buy
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.59% mean alpha, trader score -0.55. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.1% since posting (mean over 15 mentions with price data).
Divergent7651 is concentrated on securities exchanges as durable toll-taking assets, spanning CBOE, MIAX, JPXGY, BOLSY, CME and ICE, with a specific Brazil participation thesis for BOLSY. The author is also constructive but more risk-aware on SPCX/SATS monetization, while bearish on SNAP after abandoning the turnaround. There are no explicit directional trade calls or position disclosures in the payload, so the week reads as thesis-building rather than disclosed trading activity.
The week is thesis-heavy rather than trade-heavy: no CALL_DIRECTIONAL, POSITION_DISCLOSURE or NEWS_BREAK signals appear in the input. Conviction is most concentrated in exchange operators as perpetual toll assets, with secondary constructive attention on SPCX/SATS monetization and embedded workflow AI. SNAP is the clear bearish exception after the author says he gave up on the name.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Divergent7651 | · | Framework on convex payoff structures and why shorting is negatively skewed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | DPC | @Divergent7651 | +0.35 | Highlights aerospace opportunities DPC IPO and MTX at reasonable valuation, comparing to HWM/Safran. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | HWM | @Divergent7651 | +0.00 | Highlights aerospace opportunities DPC IPO and MTX at reasonable valuation, comparing to HWM/Safran. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | MTX | @Divergent7651 | +0.35 | Highlights aerospace opportunities DPC IPO and MTX at reasonable valuation, comparing to HWM/Safran. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | LB | @Divergent7651 | -0.10 | Sarcastically says Barron's articles, not earnings, drive LB stock price. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | PPIL | @Divergent7651 | +0.25 | Asks about value of PPIL legal claim against Google with de-risked liability claims. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | GOOGL | @Divergent7651 | -0.10 | Asks about value of PPIL legal claim against Google with de-risked liability claims. | +1.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | IRDM | @Divergent7651 | +0.55 | Calls IRDM one of his better ideas this year, referencing prior idea performance. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | PPLI | @Divergent7651 | +0.55 | Could be good to buy MGM puts, then discounted calls after rejection — Detailed MGM/PPLI thesis includes possible put trade and disclosed MGM calls/common. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | MGM | @Divergent7651 | -0.20 | Could be good to buy MGM puts, then discounted calls after rejection — Detailed MGM/PPLI thesis includes possible put trade and disclosed MGM calls/common. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | EVC | @Divergent7651 | +0.65 | Discloses EVC is largest portfolio position, average price $8.50, and holding patiently. | +8.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | GE | @Divergent7651 | +0.20 | GE spinoff example argues for keeping post-spin pieces for optionality. | +2.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | EROK | @Divergent7651 | +0.45 | Asks if EROK is best valuation-adjusted water exposure and lists balance sheet strengths. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | LB | @Divergent7651 | +0.00 | Asks if EROK is best valuation-adjusted water exposure and lists balance sheet strengths. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | TPL | @Divergent7651 | +0.00 | Asks if EROK is best valuation-adjusted water exposure and lists balance sheet strengths. | +2.9% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.