Author
@DratchCap DratchCap
grade Ax.com/DratchCap ↗
Mechanistic AI-compute-stack bull who models unit economics inside a disinflationary-bubble macro frame
Posts original, reasoning-dense theses on the AI infrastruct
trader score
-0.36
hit rate
35%
mean α
-0.15%
signals 14d
27
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.15% mean alpha, trader score -0.36. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -6.4% since posting (mean over 11 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | TSLA | @DratchCap | -0.15 | Notes TSLA fell 3% despite a flying-car reveal. | +4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | IHRT | @DratchCap | -0.30 | Notes IHRT CDS stayed above 1000 for years before bankruptcy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @DratchCap | · | Argues memory demand growth far exceeds supply growth, supporting higher prices. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | AAPL | @DratchCap | -0.25 | Says Apple being outperformed by Whisper Flow makes the outcome unsurprising. | +1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @DratchCap | +0.40 | Explains why project financing costs and equity needs for CoreWeave have improved. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | META | @DratchCap | +0.05 | Presents a cautiously bullish AI-compute cycle framework and expects a near-term vibe shift. | -12.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | @DratchCap | +0.60 | Presents a cautiously bullish AI-compute cycle framework and expects a near-term vibe shift. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @DratchCap | · | Reports record six-day and near-record five-day losses for an equal-weight AI basket. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | CART | @DratchCap | +0.25 | Sarcastically conveys excitement that Meta's Muse could drive business to Instacart. | +14.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @DratchCap | · | Argues future ARR growth depends on additional inference compute becoming available. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @DratchCap | · | Says current ARR is compute-constrained and future growth is primarily a supply-timing question. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @DratchCap | · | Argues a small spend-optimization panel is not representative and prefers supply and pricing indicators. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @DratchCap | · | Develops a multi-year framework for whether AI chip deliveries will exceed available power and data-center capacity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | AVGO | @DratchCap | +0.35 | Cites Hock Tan saying compute demand exceeds supply into 2030 and rejects an AI overvaluation narrative. | -9.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @DratchCap | · | Critiques chart scaling and compares a 5x AI-semiconductor move with an 8x dot-com move. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.