Author
@ernietedeschi ernietedeschi
grade Ax.com/ernietedeschi ↗
Professional macroeconomist dissecting AI, labor, fiscal, and productivity with national-accounts rigor
Posts original, data-driven macroeconomic analysis and threa
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
27
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +3.8% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Argues video games deliver far more content at roughly unchanged nominal prices. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Calls video games a clear example of long-run hedonic deflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Cites industry research finding mixed evidence that AI adoption has raised measured productivity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Discusses the GDP-GDI gap and argues future comprehensive revisions may materially change it. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Acknowledges a genuine NIPA blind spot but withholds judgment pending magnitude analysis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Research finds post-2024 AI-era new businesses more geographically dispersed, contrary to an agglomeration hypothesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @ernietedeschi | +0.00 | Argues post-January 2025 AI models differ materially in capability and adoption for labor analysis. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Says a future five-year revision is needed to validate a post-2022 decline. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Observes a persistent post-2022 decline in GDI relative to GDP, subject to revisions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Says AI can reduce writing frictions but full delegation produces poor output. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Contrasts strong historical evidence on long-run adjustment with weak short-run dislocation data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Argues AI's medium-run employment impact is manageable while short-run labor dislocation is uncertain. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Explains why a measurement issue should net out across aggregate GDP and GDI accounting approaches. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Corrects an earlier claim and concludes factoryless-goods accounting changes do not alter aggregate GDP. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @ernietedeschi | · | Works through how revised factoryless-producer accounting leaves aggregate GDP unchanged. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.