Author · brief 2026-06-22

@ernietedeschi ernietedeschi

Professional macroeconomist dissecting AI, labor, fiscal, and productivity with national-accounts rigor

Posts original, data-driven macroeconomic analysis and threa

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signals 14d
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Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).

Macro-only window focused on inflation measurement and data quality

This author is not making ticker calls or disclosing trades in this window. The content is macro and measurement-focused, centered on distributional inflation, CPI versus PCE differences, and how policymakers should weigh public and private data sources. No late-week trading shift is observable because there are no directional calls, positions, or ticker-linked signals.

Themes3analyst read · 2026-06-22
Distributional inflation measurement uncertainty
neutralNEW6 signals
Policy data quality and Fed inputs
neutralNEW3 signals
Fiscal constraints and growth policy
bearconsistent2 signals
Direction this week

The author’s attention is concentrated in macro measurement rather than securities, especially distributional inflation and the reliability of CPI, PCE, public, and private datasets. There are no adds, trims, exits, or directional ticker calls, so no trade conviction trajectory can be inferred from this payload. Concentration is high in inflation-data methodology, with no pump-risk flags because no tickers appear.

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02·@ernietedeschi·Says labor participation drop is too big for random noise but not persistent signal.·
2026-07-02·@ernietedeschi·Prime-age EPOP and LFPR fell 0.6pp in June, driven by ages 25-29.·
2026-07-02·@ernietedeschi·Unemployment ticked down to 4.2% for bad reasons: LFPR and EPOP fell.·
2026-07-02·@ernietedeschi·NFP +57K, 3MMA +111K and -74K revisions show payroll cooling.·
2026-07-02·@ernietedeschi·Links to US Employment Situation report without embedded figures.·
2026-06-29·@ernietedeschi·Research found online collection subtracted 8.9 points from UMich consumer sentiment index.·
2026-06-29·@ernietedeschi·AI capex buildout may crowd out interest-rate-sensitive priorities like housing.·
2026-06-25·@ernietedeschi·Says information processing equipment prices are adding unusual upward inflation pressure.·
2026-06-25·@ernietedeschi·States IPE is 1.6% of PCE and adds about 0.2pp to overall PCE inflation.·
2026-06-25·@ernietedeschi·Consumer information processing equipment prices are said to be up 14% year-to-date.·
2026-06-22·@ernietedeschi·Concludes business formation surge is structural and AI may lower entrepreneurship scale.·
2026-06-22·@ernietedeschi·Stripe data shows AI-influenced journeys nearly 4x share of sign-ups versus last January.·
2026-06-22·@ernietedeschi·Reports positive correlation between AI adoption and nonemployer business applications.·
2026-06-22·@ernietedeschi·Stripe proxy shows more solopreneurs crossing $1M, $5M, and $10M thresholds.·
2026-06-22·@ernietedeschi·Delaware incorporations up about 40% YoY since early 2025.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.