Author · brief 2026-06-22

@hamids hamids

Transparent, concentrated long-only tech investor anchored on a Micron memory-cycle thesis

Posts bottom-up valuation theses and real-time position upda

trader score
+1.86
hit rate
80%
mean α
+1.63%
signals 14d
87

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 80% hit rate, +1.63% mean alpha, trader score +1.86. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.4% since posting (mean over 63 mentions with price data).

Long META and MU, skeptical Tesla-SpaceX mechanics

Hamids is most explicitly long META and MU, calling META their second-largest position after MU while describing MU as severely undervalued and by far their largest holding. The distinctive read is a skeptical governance and valuation framework around Tesla and SpaceX, including merger/control mechanics, Musk compensation, taxes, and SpaceX scale limits versus hyperscaler AI capex. No clear late-week position flip appears, but the window ends with renewed skepticism on SpaceX scale and funding needs.

Themes4analyst read · 2026-06-22
Tesla-SpaceX governance and merger mechanics
mixedintensifying42 signals
⚠ 55% of theme signals are TSLA — flag pump risk
META profitable hyperscaler and retail ads
bullintensifying21 signals
MU undervaluation and portfolio concentration
bullintensifying11 signals
⚠ 64% of theme signals are META — flag pump risk
Valuation discipline on speculative growth stories
bearintensifying46 signals
⚠ 50% of theme signals are TSLA — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in long META and MU, with META newly emphasized as the second-largest position after MU. The author stays bearish or skeptical on Tesla-SpaceX governance, Musk compensation, merger/control mechanics, and SpaceX scale claims. Concentration risk is highest in the Tesla-SpaceX discussion and META advocacy, while no explicit trim, exit, or position flip is present in the supplied signals.

Position disclosures1skin in the game
MU MU is severely undervalued and by far their largest holding held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
MU remains undervalued on forward earnings versus AI peers, leaving room for a major multiple rerating.
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
The Anthropic compute deal may be shorter, less durable, or competitively vulnerable than bull models assume.
bearHIGH4 co-supporters
META is undervalued because revenue growth, margins, cash generation and low earnings multiples are stronger than the ma
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
SPCX valuation is excessive versus revenue, losses, profit base rates, and profitable mega-cap peers.
bearHIGH5 co-supporters
Apple's ecosystem, product quality and hardware control remain durable moats supporting retention, pricing and long-term
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02META@hamids+0.25Author mocks Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski adjusting META price target from $765 to $767.
2026-07-02TSLA@hamids+0.30Author says TSLA deliveries crushed it and rising deliveries could refocus valuation on car business.
2026-07-02HOOD@hamids+0.25Might trim HOOD a bit if it keeps running. — Author still likes HOOD long term but may trim if the stock keeps running.
2026-07-02RIVN@hamids+0.85Author lays out a detailed bullish Rivian thesis after Q2 deliveries beat and guidance was raised.
2026-07-02TSLA@hamids+0.00Author lays out a detailed bullish Rivian thesis after Q2 deliveries beat and guidance was raised.
2026-07-02RIVN@hamids+0.55Author says all three US EV companies had YoY delivery increases and RIVN Q3 could be up 100%.
2026-07-02LCID@hamids+0.35Author says all three US EV companies had YoY delivery increases and RIVN Q3 could be up 100%.
2026-07-02TSLA@hamids+0.45Author says all three US EV companies had YoY delivery increases and RIVN Q3 could be up 100%.
2026-07-02RIVN@hamids+0.85Author says RIVN's R2 moment has arrived with huge demand and faster production ramp.
2026-07-01MU@hamids+0.45Podcast title references MU $1,800 target, AAPL price increases and RKLB acquiring IRDM.-5.5%
2026-07-01AAPL@hamids+0.00Podcast title references MU $1,800 target, AAPL price increases and RKLB acquiring IRDM.+4.8%
2026-07-01RKLB@hamids+0.25Podcast title references MU $1,800 target, AAPL price increases and RKLB acquiring IRDM.+0.4%
2026-07-01IRDM@hamids+0.25Podcast title references MU $1,800 target, AAPL price increases and RKLB acquiring IRDM.-3.5%
2026-07-01MU@hamids+0.20Author says he picks the US-based stock when comparing similar risk profiles, referring to MU.-5.5%
2026-07-01PLTR@hamids-0.65Author criticizes PLTR CEO interview and says Palantir may be far less important than Karp thinks.+2.8%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.