Author
@Hugoilcapitano Hugoilcapitano
grade Cx.com/Hugoilcapitano ↗
Spanish-language long-term quality-compounder investor anchored on MercadoLibre and base-rate optimism
Posts fundamental valuation work (DCFs, normalized earnings)
trader score
+0.57
hit rate
70%
mean α
+0.26%
signals 14d
47
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +0.26% mean alpha, trader score +0.57. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.5% since posting (mean over 20 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @Hugoilcapitano | · | Corrects a moving-average study and reports its returns and 50–60% success rate. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @Hugoilcapitano | · | Argues waiting for perfect market timing has a historically measurable opportunity cost. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SPX | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.65 | Uses historical ATH statistics to argue that waiting to enter often costs more. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @Hugoilcapitano | · | Compares returns after investing at ATHs versus arbitrary days across six horizons. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SPX | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.35 | Introduces JPMorgan research comparing S&P 500 investing at highs with other dates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.65 | Favors durable-moat companies over ten years while retaining a core S&P 500 allocation. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SPX | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.35 | Favors durable-moat companies over ten years while retaining a core S&P 500 allocation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | GOOGL | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.65 | Favors durable-moat companies over ten years while retaining a core S&P 500 allocation. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | SPX | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.50 | Discloses that 60% of the author's portfolio is allocated to the S&P 500. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Hugoilcapitano | · | Argues long-term time in the market statistically beats precise entry and exit timing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Hugoilcapitano | · | Reports clustering of the market's best and worst days to explain timing risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | SPX | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.45 | JPMorgan chart quantifies long-run returns after missing the S&P 500's best days. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Hugoilcapitano | · | Argues good companies bought below peak valuations generate shareholder returns over rolling decades. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | BRK.B | @Hugoilcapitano | +0.00 | Notes that BRK.B has experienced drawdowns near 30% and periods without gains. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Hugoilcapitano | · | Discloses a willingness to remain invested for a long period through large drawdowns. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.