Author

@Hugoilcapitano Hugoilcapitano

Spanish-language long-term quality-compounder investor anchored on MercadoLibre and base-rate optimism

Posts fundamental valuation work (DCFs, normalized earnings)

trader score
+0.57
hit rate
70%
mean α
+0.26%
signals 14d
47

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +0.26% mean alpha, trader score +0.57. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.5% since posting (mean over 20 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@Hugoilcapitano·Corrects a moving-average study and reports its returns and 50–60% success rate.·
2026-08-28·@Hugoilcapitano·Argues waiting for perfect market timing has a historically measurable opportunity cost.·
2026-08-28SPX@Hugoilcapitano+0.65Uses historical ATH statistics to argue that waiting to enter often costs more.·
2026-08-28·@Hugoilcapitano·Compares returns after investing at ATHs versus arbitrary days across six horizons.·
2026-08-28SPX@Hugoilcapitano+0.35Introduces JPMorgan research comparing S&P 500 investing at highs with other dates.·
2026-08-28NVDA@Hugoilcapitano+0.65Favors durable-moat companies over ten years while retaining a core S&P 500 allocation.
2026-08-28SPX@Hugoilcapitano+0.35Favors durable-moat companies over ten years while retaining a core S&P 500 allocation.·
2026-08-28GOOGL@Hugoilcapitano+0.65Favors durable-moat companies over ten years while retaining a core S&P 500 allocation.
2026-08-27SPX@Hugoilcapitano+0.50Discloses that 60% of the author's portfolio is allocated to the S&P 500.·
2026-08-27·@Hugoilcapitano·Argues long-term time in the market statistically beats precise entry and exit timing.·
2026-08-27·@Hugoilcapitano·Reports clustering of the market's best and worst days to explain timing risk.·
2026-08-27SPX@Hugoilcapitano+0.45JPMorgan chart quantifies long-run returns after missing the S&P 500's best days.·
2026-08-27·@Hugoilcapitano·Argues good companies bought below peak valuations generate shareholder returns over rolling decades.·
2026-08-27BRK.B@Hugoilcapitano+0.00Notes that BRK.B has experienced drawdowns near 30% and periods without gains.·
2026-08-27·@Hugoilcapitano·Discloses a willingness to remain invested for a long period through large drawdowns.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.