Author

@jasonfurman jasonfurman

Academic economist dissecting US inflation, labor, and productivity with measured rigor

Posts original, data-driven macroeconomic analysis — interpr

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
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Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).

Recent signals13receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02·@jasonfurman·Calls June wage/price data more concerning for the Fed's inflation mandate.·
2026-07-02·@jasonfurman·Says labor outlook is slightly weaker than yesterday but resilient versus months ago.·
2026-07-02·@jasonfurman·Notes unemployment was 4.1% two years ago and 4.2% now, unusually stable.·
2026-07-02·@jasonfurman·Notes June participation and employment-population rate declines and survey divergence.·
2026-07-02·@jasonfurman·Jobs day report: 57K June jobs, 111K 3-month average, 4.2% unemployment, wage growth picked up.·
2026-06-28·@jasonfurman·Says PCE inflation data cut had people especially worried.·
2026-06-25·@jasonfurman·Reports PCE-based underlying inflation measure at 3.5% in May and elevated metrics.·
2026-06-25·@jasonfurman·Notes trimmed mean and median inflation measures are more tame.·
2026-06-25·@jasonfurman·Calls a data slide the most concerning of the month.·
2026-06-25·@jasonfurman·GDP revision and inflation risk imply less dovish Fed policy pressure.·
2026-06-25·@jasonfurman·States the dove case from slowing market-based measures and wage growth.·
2026-06-25·@jasonfurman·References full set of macro numbers without standalone detail.·
2026-06-25·@jasonfurman·Reports high PCE inflation and core PCE annualized rates across horizons.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.