Author
@jasonfurman jasonfurman
grade Ax.com/jasonfurman ↗
Academic economist dissecting US inflation, labor, and productivity with measured rigor
Posts original, data-driven macroeconomic analysis — interpr
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
36
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -5.6% since posting (mean over 5 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Argues historical fiscal policy contradicts election-year political business-cycle models. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Claims inflation and wage growth have rendered the federal minimum wage effectively irrelevant. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Argues a negative investment shock is disinflationary because demand falls before supply. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Rejects claims that infrastructure investment or corporate tax cuts are inherently deflationary. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Explains why higher rates reduce demand before supply and are therefore disinflationary. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Notes that unusually strong US exports are being driven by nonmonetary gold. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Links high rates to public debt and data-center investment, with AI demand offsetting crowding out. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Describes convergence in US employment rates for women with and without children over time. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Reports US employment levels near the bottom of a comparison, largely driven by mothers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Reports US women's employment gains from 2006–2025 lagged nearly every comparison country. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @jasonfurman | · | Weighs US versus European labor systems and links US reallocation to stronger productivity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | AMZN | @jasonfurman | +0.00 | Reports five firms accounted for 37% of top US-listed nonfinancial-company global capex in 2025. | -2.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | GOOGL | @jasonfurman | +0.00 | Reports five firms accounted for 37% of top US-listed nonfinancial-company global capex in 2025. | -8.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | ORCL | @jasonfurman | +0.00 | Reports five firms accounted for 37% of top US-listed nonfinancial-company global capex in 2025. | -7.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | MSFT | @jasonfurman | +0.00 | Reports five firms accounted for 37% of top US-listed nonfinancial-company global capex in 2025. | +0.4% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.