@kakashiii111 kakashiii111
Anonymous AI-compute bear doing forensic GPU supply-chain and capex math
Builds bottoms-up gigawatt/GPU deployment models and channel
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, +0.58% mean alpha, trader score +1.10. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.7% since posting (mean over 29 mentions with price data).
The author is focused on AI infrastructure economics: hyperscaler capex strain, OpenAI-linked RPO quality, and the risk that custom silicon reduces Nvidia dependence. Their distinctive read is bearish on demand visibility and shareholder returns at MSFT/META/CRWV, while still allowing a bullish Nvidia counter-thesis via cloud credits and Jensen’s competitive response. No explicit trade actions or position disclosures appear in this payload.
The author’s bearish concentration sits in AI capex quality, especially MSFT, META, and CRWV, with concerns around RPO, vendor terms, and buyback weakness. They are mixed on NVDA: bearish on custom-silicon substitution but bullish on Nvidia’s ability to defend AI budgets through credits and aggressive competition. There are no explicit adds, trims, exits, or position disclosures in the input.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | +0.00 | Promotes author's Nvidia versus custom ASIC article without a stated stance. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @kakashiii111 | · | Suggests a personal bailout is needed to avoid bailing out the stock market. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | +0.35 | Says neoclouds exist to generate demand for Nvidia GPUs. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | -0.05 | Questions surprise around Nvidia SPV business model. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @kakashiii111 | -0.25 | Says not to count on Meta making first move because Meta is a follower. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @kakashiii111 | +0.00 | Discusses market interpretation of Meta neocloud pivot and capex uncertainty. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | -0.25 | Frames risk of idle oversupply of NVIDIA GPUs rather than deployed-compute shortage. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @kakashiii111 | · | Reports SoftBank renewed talks for $10B loan against OpenAI stake. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | +0.35 | Argues NVIDIA would not destroy demand because OpenAI is an important indirect customer. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | +0.05 | Singapore smuggling case but says no evidence of GPU smuggling according to Nvidia. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | -0.35 | Meta excess AI compute report framed as idle GPU oversupply and neocloud competition risk. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @kakashiii111 | -0.25 | Meta excess AI compute report framed as idle GPU oversupply and neocloud competition risk. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | -0.35 | Meta excess AI compute report framed as idle GPU oversupply and neocloud competition risk. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @kakashiii111 | -0.25 | Meta excess AI compute report framed as idle GPU oversupply and neocloud competition risk. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | NVDA | @kakashiii111 | -0.75 | Mocks Nvidia cycle strategy and claims Blackwell inventory/customer issues. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.