Author
@KarelMercx KarelMercx
grade Ax.com/KarelMercx ↗
Dutch commodity macro analyst reading physical-market plumbing for a 1970s-style regime
Posts high-conviction, reasoned theses on commodities and th
trader score
+2.32
hit rate
70%
mean α
+1.04%
signals 14d
56
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +1.04% mean alpha, trader score +2.32. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.1% since posting (mean over 15 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Expects higher long yields and argues policies restraining them would support precious metals. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Reports an unusually large two-day rise in soft commodities and vertical agriculture performance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Links falling Shanghai silver premium, ETF demand, rising leases, and negative swaps to dollar weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Reports repeated 52-week highs and an 8.6-fold Europe-U.S. natural-gas price gap. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Argues weaponization of dollar access is extremely bullish for gold over coming years. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Expresses a strong positive view of precious metals broadly. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | AEM | @KarelMercx | +0.75 | AEM could reach a new all-time high within weeks. — Forecasts a new all-time high within weeks after a 27% year-to-date gain and strong rebound. | -5.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Interprets possible Treasury funding of bond buybacks through the TGA as bullish for gold. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Explains how Europe-Asia supply timing can flip a regional commodity spread. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @KarelMercx | · | States that European natural gas trades only slightly above Asian natural gas. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | EQT | @KarelMercx | +0.80 | Calls EQT a no-brainer based on cash flow and convergence between US and global gas prices. | +1.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Links short-term debt refinancing risk and prospective money printing to precious-metals strength. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Reports European gas at a new 52-week high while inventories remain historically low. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @KarelMercx | · | The US 30-year yield has retraced much of yesterday's decline. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | WPM | @KarelMercx | +0.75 | WPM will reach a new all-time high next week. — Forecasts WPM reaching a new all-time high next week. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.