Author
@KarelMercx KarelMercx
grade Ax.com/KarelMercx ↗
Dutch commodity macro analyst reading physical-market plumbing for a 1970s-style regime
Posts high-conviction, reasoned theses on commodities and th
trader score
-2.12
hit rate
40%
mean α
-0.84%
signals 14d
74
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -0.84% mean alpha, trader score -2.12. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.9% since posting (mean over 18 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Anticipates enormous long-run returns in an unnamed asset if investors rotate away from a stagnant S&P 500. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | XOM | @KarelMercx | +0.45 | Reports Exxon's 250% five-year total return including dividends. | +2.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | FRO | @KarelMercx | +0.45 | Argues Frontline's decline from $60 to $52 is overdone amid an ongoing tanker shortage. | +0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Reports fresh 52-week highs for oil majors and a sharp rise in December oil futures. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Reports that the silver lease rate has returned to positive territory. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | XOM | @KarelMercx | +0.50 | Reports 52-week highs and large gains for three oil majors, supported by oil and rate dynamics. | +4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CVX | @KarelMercx | +0.50 | Reports 52-week highs and large gains for three oil majors, supported by oil and rate dynamics. | +6.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | PBR | @KarelMercx | +0.50 | Reports 52-week highs and large gains for three oil majors, supported by oil and rate dynamics. | +3.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Uses SK Hynix's six-month low to warn that higher rates compress future cash-flow valuations near market tops. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Author states that they are always fully invested. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @KarelMercx | · | Reports a 2026 TTF high and Europe-Asia gas spread, implying competition may intensify. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | MU | @KarelMercx | -0.35 | Favors FRO over MU due to lower capital intensity and rate sensitivity. | -4.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | FRO | @KarelMercx | +0.55 | Favors FRO over MU due to lower capital intensity and rate sensitivity. | -5.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | FANG | @KarelMercx | +0.65 | Names FANG as a favorite way to express a potential oil move toward $200. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | FRO | @KarelMercx | +0.70 | Forecasts FRO dividends worth tens of percent of its share price over the next year. | -10.3% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.