@lebas_janney lebas_janney
Named institutional rates/credit strategist posting model-driven, skeptical macro analysis.
Provides real-time and forward-looking analysis of US Treasu
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
This author is not making single-name equity calls; the window is dominated by macro read-throughs from Warsh’s first FOMC communication. The distinctive read is that less forward guidance and low-conviction dot-plot signaling could make markets more data-driven and more volatile, with VIX as the only explicit ticker exposure. No position add, trim, exit, or directional trade signal appears in the payload.
The author’s concentration is overwhelmingly macro, centered on Warsh’s FOMC communication reset, curve flattening, and inflation credibility rather than equity trading. The only explicit ticker is VIX, used as a volatility proxy for the view that the Warsh Fed may end volatility dampening and amplify volatility through year end. There is no evidence of adds, trims, exits, or a discrete conviction flip in this payload.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Payrolls takeaway says job growth absorbs entrants but shows month-over-month softening. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPX | @lebas_janney | -0.25 | Notes S&P weakness despite some Mag7 stocks up 5%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @lebas_janney | · | ISM prices paid firms reporting higher prices eased to +73% from +82%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Comment says modeled rebalancing includes lagged effect for prior month returns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Month-end rebalancing looks benign with slight equity selling and fixed income buying under 0.3x z-score. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Says consensus favoring central bank independence is deeply accepted. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Says Supreme Court created exception limiting firing of Federal Reserve Board members. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Headline calls for record high by July 4, but details are behind link. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Compares current session to prior constructive CPI prints fading by noon. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Corrects 3-month annualized rate to 3.5% and notes deceleration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Notes pharma M&A event where acquirer added more market cap than acquired. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.