Author
@lebas_janney lebas_janney
Named institutional rates/credit strategist posting model-driven, skeptical macro analysis.
Provides real-time and forward-looking analysis of US Treasu
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
10
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals10receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Interprets FOMC minutes as divided on inflation, with hikes conditional on inflation not declining. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Provides projected FDA filing, PDUFA, and launch timing for an unidentified treatment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Sarcastically questions a Treasury-issuance thesis and the quality of its supporting paper. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Says Treasury transactions signal extraordinary efforts to cap 30-year yields at 5.25%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Says biotech damage from 2022–2025 will require another five years to recover. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Argues CPI methodology shuffled drug costs outside the measure rather than reducing total costs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Says inflation point estimates are flat but policy uncertainty widened outcome distributions and term premia. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Attributes a combined effect roughly two-thirds to a $2T deficit and one-third to $1T capex. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Challenges sticky-inflation narratives as CPI falls to a five-year low. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | · | @lebas_janney | · | Links a week-ahead market outlook valid through Jackson Hole. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.