Author
@LukeGromen LukeGromen
grade Ax.com/LukeGromen ↗
Mechanistic de-dollarization macro thinker who maps USD-UST-oil-gold plumbing
Publishes original top-down macro research framing a secular
trader score
+0.13
hit rate
53%
mean α
+0.04%
signals 14d
179
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 19 scored bets: 53% hit rate, +0.04% mean alpha, trader score +0.13. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +5.0% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Argues unprecedented US debt, deficits and capital openness limit the usefulness of historical cycles. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Conditional macro view links an unspecified outcome to a weaker dollar and falling real rates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Forecasts yields will resume rising while a financial bubble continues deflating. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Questions China's incentives in allegedly facilitating faster destruction of Middle East infrastructure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Frames potential Iranian destruction of Yanbu as a major geopolitical market risk beyond a short war. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Argues Chinese currency and bond outperformance conflicts with consensus supply-chain assumptions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Warns that leverage causes financial stress to spread unless policymakers intervene first. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Infers weakened US air-defense capacity and continued strike risk from recent attacks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Argues alleged Chinese missile support for Houthis challenges consensus views of the Gulf conflict. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Frames sovereign debt buybacks as the only politically feasible fiscal retrenchment path. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Argues fiscal retrenchment before gold-based debt devaluation would strengthen USD and collapse the system. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Warns that insider selling at a 25-40x sales valuation is a major caution sign for an unnamed manufacturer. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Forecasts a 200-500x gold/oil ratio and oil at $50-$100 under an unstated scenario. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Calls an unnamed manufacturer trading at 40x trailing sales a bubble likely to burst. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @LukeGromen | · | Compares Anduril's 27x sales valuation with dot-com stocks before their collapse. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.