@market_sleuth market_sleuth
Intermarket-aware tape reader using EMA levels and historical analogs for tactical index calls
Posts real-time technical and macro analysis of the US index
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 25% hit rate, -0.50% mean alpha, trader score -1.20. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 46 mentions with price data).
market_sleuth is mainly trading around index/macro tape signals, with SPY puts framed as hedges and attention on SPX FOMC, MOC imbalance, seasonality, FX, and geopolitical headline risk. Single-name commentary is sparse: he pushes back against SPCX shorts, recaps IBM pump failure, and highlights SNDK option upside after the move. The window is more tactical tape-reading than durable fundamental stock picking, with no clear mid-week flip beyond mixed SPX signals around FOMC and later risk skepticism.
The author is concentrated in tactical macro and index tape-reading, especially SPX setups around FOMC, MOC imbalance, seasonality, FX, and geopolitical headline risk. Single-name work is episodic: SPCX gets the most repeated stock-specific attention, while IBM and SNDK are post-hoc recaps. Position disclosure points to hedged SPY downside exposure rather than a broad aggressive short book.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | SPX | @market_sleuth | -0.45 | SPX gapped up and faded on two bullish days, a weakening-market pattern. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @market_sleuth | · | Defends puts/shorts as normal despite patriotic criticism. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | VIX | @market_sleuth | +0.00 | Warns longs do not want SPX/SPY closing below yesterday's close; gives SPY level. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPY | @market_sleuth | -0.30 | Warns longs do not want SPX/SPY closing below yesterday's close; gives SPY level. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPX | @market_sleuth | -0.20 | Warns longs do not want SPX/SPY closing below yesterday's close; gives SPY level. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPY | @market_sleuth | -0.45 | SPY broke yesterday's intraday low at 742.37, a negative technical sign. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPY | @market_sleuth | -0.25 | Jokes about needing a seasonality refund if SPX/SPY close red. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPX | @market_sleuth | -0.25 | Jokes about needing a seasonality refund if SPX/SPY close red. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | DJIA | @market_sleuth | +0.25 | DJIA is at a new all-time high, framed as good news. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSLA | @market_sleuth | -0.25 | Recaps Burry's shorts working today, noting TSLA exception yesterday. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @market_sleuth | -0.55 | Recaps META pump-and-dump call and says it is down $35 since. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IWM | @market_sleuth | +0.35 | DJIA and IWM hit new ATH while SPX and QQQ lag. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | QQQ | @market_sleuth | -0.15 | DJIA and IWM hit new ATH while SPX and QQQ lag. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPX | @market_sleuth | -0.15 | DJIA and IWM hit new ATH while SPX and QQQ lag. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | DJIA | @market_sleuth | +0.35 | DJIA and IWM hit new ATH while SPX and QQQ lag. | — | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.