@MB_Hogan MB_Hogan
High-conviction, financing-savvy bottom-up bull on AI-cloud infrastructure, NBIS-obsessed
Builds and continuously updates deep fundamental theses on A
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 75% hit rate, +4.22% mean alpha, trader score +3.04. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -10.7% since posting (mean over 109 mentions with price data).
MB_Hogan is overwhelmingly focused on NBIS, repeatedly disclosing a roughly 90%+ portfolio allocation and defending a long-term AI infrastructure runway. His distinctive read is that Nebius can scale gigawatt capacity, ARR, and valuation far beyond current expectations, while acknowledging near-term fair value and pullback risk. Late-window posts leaned further into 2030 price-target math, revenue-per-MW assumptions, and AI infrastructure preference despite geopolitical macro noise.
Conviction intensified around NBIS after an ambiguous exit-position joke, with later disclosures saying he was not selling and still had over 90% of the portfolio in Nebius. Adds are not explicitly stated, but holding conviction and valuation work became more concentrated into 2030 ARR, GW capacity, and price-target math. Concentration risk is extreme: NBIS dominates the signal set and several themes, while macro Iran/Hormuz posts are treated as pullback risk rather than thesis breakers.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MB_Hogan | · | Projects 2x market cap if company reaches $20B ARR by 2027, but ticker not stated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MB_Hogan | · | Bought around 40000 shares on this pullback — Author discloses buying shares on pullback, but ticker is not included. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @MB_Hogan | +0.65 | Bullish macro setup for NBIS from lower inflation, oil, soft jobs and rate cuts. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MB_Hogan | · | Flags June jobs report as additional rate-cut catalyst. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MB_Hogan | · | Falling oil and record production seen as deflationary for Fed policy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CRWV | @MB_Hogan | +0.45 | Says Nvidia is strongly committed to Nebius and CoreWeave scaling. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @MB_Hogan | +0.30 | Says Nvidia is strongly committed to Nebius and CoreWeave scaling. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @MB_Hogan | +0.45 | Says Nvidia is strongly committed to Nebius and CoreWeave scaling. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @MB_Hogan | +0.35 | Nebius announces AI Discovery Awards winners and healthcare platform preview. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NBIS | @MB_Hogan | +0.55 | Says macro could be turning bullish with possible rate cut before year-end. | -5.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NBIS | @MB_Hogan | +0.80 | Argues HBM shortage creates friction for Nvidia deployments but favors Nebius deployed capacity. | -5.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @MB_Hogan | -0.10 | Argues HBM shortage creates friction for Nvidia deployments but favors Nebius deployed capacity. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @MB_Hogan | +0.30 | Added to NBIS position on the dip — Explains Meta deal terms and says happy to add to NBIS position on dip. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @MB_Hogan | +0.20 | Added to NBIS position on the dip — Explains Meta deal terms and says happy to add to NBIS position on dip. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NBIS | @MB_Hogan | +0.90 | Added to NBIS position on the dip — Explains Meta deal terms and says happy to add to NBIS position on dip. | -5.9% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.