@MebFaber MebFaber
Rigorous, contrarian asset-allocation quant turning market history into actionable frameworks
Publishes original macro, valuation and asset-allocation res
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 6 scored bets: 67% hit rate, +0.57% mean alpha, trader score +1.23. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.3% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
MebFaber is not making ticker-level directional calls this week; the feed is dominated by market-history frameworks, compounding discipline, and long-run ownership/return data. The distinctive read is a base-rate lens: current mega-cap concentration and bond/stock outcomes are framed against centuries of market history rather than near-term catalysts. No late-week flip, add, trim, or explicit trade signal appears in the provided signals.
There are no CALL_DIRECTIONAL or POSITION_DISCLOSURE signals, so there is no evidence of adds, trims, exits, flips, or trade conviction changes. The author’s attention is concentrated in market-history base rates, compounding discipline, and concentration context across AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA, with no pump-risk from repeated bullish single-name calls.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @MebFaber | · | Summarizes long-run stock return distribution: average up year +21% and average return rarely occurs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | · | @MebFaber | · | Peter Lynch quote cautions against over-preparing for corrections. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MebFaber | · | Notes Korean stock market tripled after prior tweet two years ago. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MebFaber | · | Quotes historical performance of top 10 S&P 500 stocks versus equal-weighted remaining stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MebFaber | · | Reports country stock market CAPE ratios in 30s, 40s, and 50s. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MebFaber | · | Shares a recommended read about US exceptionalism, AI, and total portfolio. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MebFaber | · | States 22.6% endowment-style investable benchmark to beat. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MebFaber | · | Raises comparison of institutions versus low-fee endowment style ETF. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MebFaber | · | Howard Marks quote emphasizes survival under negative outcomes over max returns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MebFaber | · | Historical inflation-scare framework: 1970s saw cash, bonds, stocks underperform inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @MebFaber | · | Hopes for a euphoric romp in stocks this year. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @MebFaber | · | Shares value stocks cash-flow case for continuing comeback. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @MebFaber | · | IPO relative return by year chart shared. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @MebFaber | · | Notes 60/40 income has been stable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @MebFaber | · | Risky bond yields are not attractive relative to T-bills today. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.