Author
@MebFaber MebFaber
grade Ax.com/MebFaber ↗
Rigorous, contrarian asset-allocation quant turning market history into actionable frameworks
Publishes original macro, valuation and asset-allocation res
trader score
-0.80
hit rate
20%
mean α
-0.40%
signals 14d
42
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 10 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -0.40% mean alpha, trader score -0.80. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.6% since posting (mean over 4 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @MebFaber | · | Presents a bearish AI-bubble framework spanning credit, pricing, data centers and IPO supply. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @MebFaber | · | Shares a general investing principle favoring hedges alongside forecasts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @MebFaber | · | Argues many investment products lack manager conviction and that poor products are often high-fee. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SCHW | @MebFaber | -0.55 | Expects Schwab to face stronger downside as advisors adopt Altruist as a custodian. | +0.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | MFUT | @MebFaber | +0.15 | Promotes a discussion of managed futures and the Cambria Chesapeake Pure Trend ETF. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @MebFaber | · | Uses long-run data to argue for the compounding strength and resilience of U.S. equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @MebFaber | · | Quotes the bond market's power to intimidate policymakers and other actors. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @MebFaber | · | Distinguishes long-only global asset allocation from Trinity strategies that allocate half to trend following. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @MebFaber | · | Notes that risk-parity strategies historically allocate heavily to fixed income. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @MebFaber | · | States the All Weather portfolio has 111% bond exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @MebFaber | · | Attributes zero allocations to groupthink and discusses convergence among AI answers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @MebFaber | · | Discusses audience poll bias and estimates how a general audience would allocate responses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @MebFaber | · | Promotes a discussion of index investing, factor research and AI as a gold-rush theme. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @MebFaber | · | Howard Marks quote warns that widespread complacency about risk is itself dangerous. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @MebFaber | · | Discloses that Trinity strategies allocate roughly half to trend, unlike many endowments. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.