@MF_Camillus MF_Camillus
Opinionated AI-hardware bull dissecting GPU, memory and ASIC economics with structural rigor
Posts long-form reasoning quote-tweets building fundamental
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 75% hit rate, +1.08% mean alpha, trader score +1.88. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -5.7% since posting (mean over 25 mentions with price data).
MF_Camillus is concentrated on a long memory-cycle thesis, especially MU and SNDK, while using STX/WDC as relative overvaluation foils. Distinctive views are that AI-driven memory shortages can persist into 2028, Brazil faces fiscal/FX stress, and AAPL/NVDA valuations or management quality deserve skepticism. No position disclosures or directional trade calls were present, but late-week posts kept adding MU-specific support and Brazil macro detail.
Conviction is concentrated in MU/SNDK and the broader AI memory shortage thesis, with repeated relative-value attacks on STX/WDC across June 16-18. Brazil macro work intensified from an initial EWZ/USDBRL/IBOV framework on June 18 into more detailed fiscal, reserve, and FX-risk posts on June 19. No adds, trims, exits, or explicit position disclosures appeared in the input.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | QQQ | @MF_Camillus | +0.45 | Argues momentum selloff is overextended and July hits often rebound in August. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | META | @MF_Camillus | +0.35 | Author expects META to guide to much higher forward capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @MF_Camillus | +0.35 | Compares CRWD 30x NTM sales to MU 5.5x NTM P/E as market irrationality. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CRWD | @MF_Camillus | -0.30 | Compares CRWD 30x NTM sales to MU 5.5x NTM P/E as market irrationality. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @MF_Camillus | +0.40 | Meta cloud-style compute monetization seen as bullish for AI infrastructure and capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @MF_Camillus | +0.45 | Meta cloud-style compute monetization seen as bullish for AI infrastructure and capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @MF_Camillus | +0.55 | Meta cloud-style compute monetization seen as bullish for AI infrastructure and capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @MF_Camillus | +0.35 | Reports making money trading MU pre-market after the fact. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @MF_Camillus | +0.65 | Mocks MU trading near 5x P/E despite 3-5y LTAs with no price caps. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @MF_Camillus | +0.40 | Bloomberg-cited Meta CSP ambitions seen as bullish for compute demand and capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @MF_Camillus | +0.45 | Bloomberg-cited Meta CSP ambitions seen as bullish for compute demand and capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @MF_Camillus | +0.55 | Bloomberg-cited Meta CSP ambitions seen as bullish for compute demand and capex. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @MF_Camillus | +0.35 | Says initiative will increase META confidence to boost capex, positive for AI suppliers. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MU | @MF_Camillus | +0.35 | Says initiative will increase META confidence to boost capex, positive for AI suppliers. | -5.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @MF_Camillus | +0.45 | Says initiative will increase META confidence to boost capex, positive for AI suppliers. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.