Author
@MichaelKantro MichaelKantro
Institutional macro strategist decomposing equity returns into rates, risk premium, and breadth
Publishes original top-down macro frameworks tying interest
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
18
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.7% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Author favors quality over high-beta, low-quality stocks as cyclical rebounds fade. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | XLC | @MichaelKantro | -0.35 | Argues sector ETFs have concentration, tracking-error, and unintended-exposure problems, citing XLC. | -4.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Argues rate burden should be judged by relative consumer cost rather than historical levels. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SPX | @MichaelKantro | +0.00 | Explains a sector-neutral equal-weight portfolio of roughly 50 top-decile index names. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Discloses a recent portfolio-recipe shift from earnings and value emphasis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SPX | @MichaelKantro | +0.40 | Reports a paper stock index gained about 30% YTD and beat cap- and equal-weight benchmarks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Rising corporate margins are presented as broad-based and supportive of higher forward estimates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Warns that record tech growth expectations leave less room for uncertainty. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | IWM | @MichaelKantro | -0.50 | Argues breadth is deteriorating broadly despite strong earnings and guidance data. | -0.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Strong earnings make a broad credit event unlikely; rate shocks should remain compartmentalized. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Questions the next-year outlook for a cyclically sensitive macro-factor basket after strong gains. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Piper shifts its factor basket from earnings momentum and cyclical value toward higher quality. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | · | @MichaelKantro | · | Suggests stocks are cheap if an unseen projected outcome materializes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | SPX | @MichaelKantro | +0.00 | Clarifies that S&P operating earnings exclude other income despite its presence in GAAP EPS. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | SPX | @MichaelKantro | +0.00 | Explains why S&P index earnings differ from GAAP earnings. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.