Author
@michaelxpettis michaelxpettis
grade Ax.com/michaelxpettis ↗
Academic China-macro thinker reframing trade imbalances via accounting identities and history
Publishes original, framework-heavy threads on global trade
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
70
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Highlights China's attempt to attract foreign consumers as a strategy to stimulate a slowing economy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Describes China's K-shaped economy and argues export-led growth is masking fragile domestic demand. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Calls China's graduate labor market worrying as low-paid jobs rise and a safety net contracts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues wage increases may rebalance China through lower production rather than higher aggregate wages. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues mainstream economics often assumes away soft budget constraints. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues large trade imbalances typically resolve painfully and policy determines how the pain is allocated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues trade-imbalance adjustment is usually painful and its distribution is the central policy question. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Endorses the IMF's warning that persistent external imbalances create vulnerabilities and fragmentation risks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Links Thailand's household debt to suppressed wages, excess production and distorted global trade incentives. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Explains that rate repression works more readily with higher inflation and favors the deflator. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Banking crises are framed as transferring costs to households through hidden channels. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Quantifies how nominal growth, deposit rates and loan rates shifted bank losses to households. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Characterizes financial repression as a tax on savings held in monetary assets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | China debt-cleanup framework argues financial repression burdened households and entrenched structural imbalances. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Beijing resisting debt-funded stimulus creates a choice between lower growth targets and unsustainable spending. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.