Author
@michaelxpettis michaelxpettis
grade Ax.com/michaelxpettis ↗
Academic China-macro thinker reframing trade imbalances via accounting identities and history
Publishes original, framework-heavy threads on global trade
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
39
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues China's trade surpluses are systemic and export restrictions do little to correct underlying imbalances. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Says rebalancing would require income redistribution that harms near-term manufacturing competitiveness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Relays Bloomberg's report that China shifted Treasury custody rather than dumping securities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues China's pledge for more balanced trade conflicts with its consumption, investment, and production constraints. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Quotes Caixin saying exports remain a key support. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Forecasts worsening trade tensions and rising barriers unless global imbalances are collectively resolved. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Endorses a framework blaming China's state-led model for imbalances, overcapacity and weak productivity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Describes destructive economics in food delivery after a costly market-share land grab. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Quoted assessment says Greek bailout reforms reduced productivity and shifted jobs to weaker sectors. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues China's debt surge finances nonviable investment needed to sustain political growth targets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Clarifies that referenced debt-to-GDP ratios and debt growth cover total debt. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues low central-government debt masks contingent liabilities shifted elsewhere | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Reuters reports sharp declines in China vehicle sales alongside strong export growth | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | China proposed nationwide gig-worker protections; author views them as supportive of rebalancing | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Argues interest rates are largely regulator-determined. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.