@michaelxpettis michaelxpettis
Academic China-macro thinker reframing trade imbalances via accounting identities and history
Publishes original, framework-heavy threads on global trade
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
This author is focused entirely on China macro, not single-name equity calls. The dominant read is that China’s growth model, soft budget constraints, state-firm production, debt burden, and weak capital transmission are driving structural overcapacity and policy responses. No ticker-level trading claims, position disclosures, or directional calls appear in the supplied signals.
The author’s window is consistently macro-focused, centered on China’s overcapacity, debt-heavy growth model, and weak transmission of capital into the real economy. There are no adds, trims, position disclosures, or ticker-level calls, so no trade conviction or pump-risk can be inferred from this payload.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Framework on inverted debt structures and risks for developing economies including Nigeria. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Calls total-return swaps worrying due to obscure debt and margin-call risks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Caixin data says major Chinese cities reached 45.5% of builder sales, while housing seeks a bottom. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Xinhua says China extended unemployment insurance policies through end-2026. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Explains China's suppressed consumption and systemic imbalance framework. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Macro framework tying China trade surplus, weak consumption, and household GDP share. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Macro thesis on dollar dominance, overvalued dollar, and US economic tradeoffs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Bloomberg-cited skepticism about EU willingness to take trade action on China. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Long macro thesis on China's imbalances and risk of forced external rebalancing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Cites manufacturing value-added shares of GDP globally and for Germany and France. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Detailed macro framework comparing Japan Plaza Accord lessons with China rebalancing risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | SCMP quote says reindustrialising is harder now and past national interests were underdefended. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Caixin reports China auto exports expected near 10M in 2026 from 7.1M in 2025. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Cited view says rising Chinese export prices reflect robust external demand. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @michaelxpettis | · | Reports Caixin BBD New Economy Index at 34.1, up 1.7 points. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.