Author

@monetarycomm monetarycomm

Macro commentator who reads daily heatmaps into an AI-vs-cyclicals regime narrative

Posts near-daily US market recaps built from S&P heatmaps an

trader score
-0.86
hit rate
36%
mean α
-0.72%
signals 14d
35

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 11 scored bets: 36% hit rate, -0.72% mean alpha, trader score -0.86. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.3% since posting (mean over 11 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@monetarycomm·Questions Warsh's selection while concluding that rate cuts are not in sight.·
2026-08-28·@monetarycomm·Reports fed-funds futures pricing above 55%, but reply context is missing.·
2026-08-27·@monetarycomm·Explains GDP composition and cites 4.2% private domestic final-sales growth.·
2026-08-27·@monetarycomm·Flags demand, credit and labor deterioration as faster downside mechanisms, though not current.·
2026-08-27·@monetarycomm·Describes a shift in national income from cash wages toward benefits and capital income.·
2026-08-27IGV@monetarycomm+0.45Quantifies IGV's sharp relative rebound versus SMH but says it is not yet a regime change.-0.7%
2026-08-27SMH@monetarycomm-0.25Quantifies IGV's sharp relative rebound versus SMH but says it is not yet a regime change.-3.5%
2026-08-27·@monetarycomm·Says prevailing interest rates are approximately appropriate rather than restrictive or distorted.·
2026-08-26TGT@monetarycomm-0.25Quantifies an extreme WMT/TGT ratio dislocation using z-score, performance, and RSI.-0.5%
2026-08-26WMT@monetarycomm+0.25Quantifies an extreme WMT/TGT ratio dislocation using z-score, performance, and RSI.-1.2%
2026-08-26·@monetarycomm·States gasoline was the largest month-over-month loser without giving values·
2026-08-26·@monetarycomm·Discloses an unidentified position up 60% and expects a less linear three-month path·
2026-08-25GDX@monetarycomm+0.45Reports the GDX-to-GLD ratio at an ATH after a 15.3% three-month move and RSI of 83.-5.6%
2026-08-25GLD@monetarycomm+0.45Reports the GDX-to-GLD ratio at an ATH after a 15.3% three-month move and RSI of 83.-4.5%
2026-08-25TLT@monetarycomm+0.45Identifies a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in TLT's daily chart.-0.7%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.