@NickTimiraos NickTimiraos
WSJ Fed whisperer delivering real-time, data-rich US monetary policy reporting and analysis
Reports and analyzes Federal Reserve policy, the FOMC reacti
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Nick Timiraos is focused entirely on Fed reaction function, inflation persistence, and the market implications of Kevin Warsh's Fed communication style. The distinctive read is that the policy debate has moved from cuts toward possible hikes, with hawkish dots and unclear guidance driving market repricing. No equity tickers or tradeable single-name calls appear in this payload.
The author’s coverage flips the macro debate from cuts toward hike risk, with signals explicitly saying the Fed shifted to whether it must hike and that markets raised July hike bets. There are no adds, trims, position disclosures, or ticker concentration flags because the payload is entirely macro/Fed-focused. Conviction is concentrated in the Warsh Fed communication framework and hawkish dot-plot repricing.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Trump comments on process for removing Cook. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Trump says lawyers will try to prove allegations against Fed governor Lisa Cook meet for-cause threshold. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Trump comments Warsh would like lower rates but faces a hostile board. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Clarifies some inflation measures excluding energy have been firmer than expected this year. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Discusses boundary between Fed monetary policy and regulatory policy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Analyzes Supreme Court implications for Fed independence and regulatory authority. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Frames sticky inflation as a puzzle if the labor market is not the inflation source. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | June unemployment rate was 4.189%, lowest since last June's 4.140%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Six-month payroll averages show private jobs +88k/month and total payrolls +92k/month. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | US economy added 57k jobs in June, revisions cut 74k, unemployment edged down to 4.2%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Hassett argues rate hikes would be a macro mistake and inflation fears will be proven wrong. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Reports Warsh may announce heads of reform study groups next week. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Warsh points to lower yields, volatility and inflation expectations, sounding comfortable with policy review. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Warsh says there will be no change to central bank independence. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Warsh declines to judge whether AI boom is inflationary. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.