Author
@NickTimiraos NickTimiraos
grade Ax.com/NickTimiraos ↗
WSJ Fed whisperer delivering real-time, data-rich US monetary policy reporting and analysis
Reports and analyzes Federal Reserve policy, the FOMC reacti
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
38
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Reports a sharp 2-year yield rise and futures-implied probabilities for Fed hikes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Reports Warsh saying conditions are not restrictive and inflation progress is insufficient. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | States tariffs affect spending substantially more than prices. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Explains conflict between Treasury efforts to lower yields and the Fed's desire to restrain conditions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Lisa Cook's lawyers explained her mortgage paperwork and threatened a legal challenge to removal. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Says a methodological adjustment should reduce an unspecified annual rate by 0.2-0.3 points. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Notes tougher monthly comparisons ahead after core PCE readings of 0.18%-0.23% in late 2025. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | An economist warns Warsh may struggle to lead a divided, increasingly hawkish FOMC without a clear argument. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Frames Warsh's Jackson Hole speech around a hawkish regime shift and whether policy is tight enough. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Notes housing's recent core-PCE contribution is slightly below its pre-pandemic level. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Breaks July core PCE into goods, housing and ex-housing services components. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | July core PCE rose 0.25% monthly and 3.34% yearly, with three- and six-month rates elevated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Collins says policy tightening may soon be appropriate absent sustained inflation progress. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Raises concerns that Bessent's debt and currency policies could create pressure on Warsh and Fed institutions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @NickTimiraos | · | Druckenmiller condemns yield-defensive Treasury buybacks and argues deficits, not suppression, must be addressed. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.