Author
@PauloMacro PauloMacro
grade Ax.com/PauloMacro ↗
Contrarian commodity-macro thinker who reasons from physical oil balances to second-order shocks
Builds original supply-side macro frameworks — primarily oil
trader score
-0.85
hit rate
20%
mean α
-4.34%
signals 14d
21
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 5 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -4.34% mean alpha, trader score -0.85. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.3% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @PauloMacro | +0.35 | Reports Huang's claim that CoreWeave's cost of capital is decreasing. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | CRWV | @PauloMacro | -0.20 | Reports that CoreWeave's CEO sold $275 million of stock over the past ten weeks. | -17.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | JEF | @PauloMacro | -0.70 | Compares an AI-financing basket to fragile 2008-era institutions and anticipates rescues if stress escalates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ORCL | @PauloMacro | -0.65 | Compares an AI-financing basket to fragile 2008-era institutions and anticipates rescues if stress escalates. | -3.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | OWL | @PauloMacro | -0.65 | Compares an AI-financing basket to fragile 2008-era institutions and anticipates rescues if stress escalates. | +6.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | CRWV | @PauloMacro | -0.85 | Compares an AI-financing basket to fragile 2008-era institutions and anticipates rescues if stress escalates. | -17.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | CRWV | @PauloMacro | -0.50 | Mocks CRWV CEO's claim that the market is acting irrationally. | -17.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Implies serious systemic risk from Latin American pension swap losses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Frames Latin American swap developments as an Orange County-style market disaster risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @PauloMacro | · | The phrase characterizes a supposedly permanent market plateau as a Ponzi-like condition. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Reports extremely low Friday trading volume and notably lower averages since Labor Day. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Compares low post-Labor-Day equity volume to a market that has stopped clearing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Sarcasm dismisses 100 kbpd of supply against over 1 mmbpd lost and low diesel stocks, implying persistent tightness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | SPY | @PauloMacro | -0.10 | SPY volume of 22.6 million shares was the second-lowest daily volume of the past decade. | -2.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Reports Trump saying the U.S. will not attack Iran before the midterms. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.