Author
@PauloMacro PauloMacro
grade Ax.com/PauloMacro ↗
Contrarian commodity-macro thinker who reasons from physical oil balances to second-order shocks
Builds original supply-side macro frameworks — primarily oil
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
6
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals6receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Expects Iran to resist economic or strategic pressure, implying elevated geopolitical conflict risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Metaphor suggests monetary authorities will need substantially stronger intervention. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Author praises the day's Bitcoin and Ether gains while expressing uncertainty about Fed messaging. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Compares US debt-maturity management with emerging-market episodes and warns against relying on bill-heavy financing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Warns an imminent diesel shortage as seasonal inventory builds end and harvest demand begins. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | · | @PauloMacro | · | Suggests menu sticker price changes are forthcoming, implying renewed consumer inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.