Author

@PauloMacro PauloMacro

Contrarian commodity-macro thinker who reasons from physical oil balances to second-order shocks

Builds original supply-side macro frameworks — primarily oil

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
6

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).

Recent signals6receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-20·@PauloMacro·Expects Iran to resist economic or strategic pressure, implying elevated geopolitical conflict risk.·
2026-08-20·@PauloMacro·Metaphor suggests monetary authorities will need substantially stronger intervention.·
2026-08-20·@PauloMacro·Author praises the day's Bitcoin and Ether gains while expressing uncertainty about Fed messaging.·
2026-08-19·@PauloMacro·Compares US debt-maturity management with emerging-market episodes and warns against relying on bill-heavy financing.·
2026-08-18·@PauloMacro·Warns an imminent diesel shortage as seasonal inventory builds end and harvest demand begins.·
2026-08-16·@PauloMacro·Suggests menu sticker price changes are forthcoming, implying renewed consumer inflation.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.