@puppyeh1 puppyeh1
Rigorous special-situations PM dissecting ASX small-cap arb and AI-capex macro bear
Publishes original, quantified merger-arb and special-situat
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 13 scored bets: 54% hit rate, +0.32% mean alpha, trader score +0.38. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.6% since posting (mean over 5 mentions with price data).
Author is concentrated in bullish Australian small-cap situations, especially EDU.AX re-rating after enrollment strength and CCP.AX after a disclosed long thesis, breakout, and removal of an overhang. Distinctive read is event-driven: low valuation plus operational print for EDU.AX, short/overhang setup for CCP.AX, and legal settlement upside for A1N.AX. Late-week activity stayed bullish, with CCP.AX becoming the dominant focus after the EDU.AX call.
Conviction is concentrated in bullish ASX small-cap event setups, led by CCP.AX and EDU.AX. CCP.AX shows the clearest late-week intensification, moving from disclosed long to breakout commentary and Bennelong overhang removal. Pump-risk is highest in CCP.AX given 100% concentration inside its dedicated theme and repeated bullish framing across three signals.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Vague positive framing toward AI capex bottleneck names, but no tickers named. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Expected a filing by now and would be surprised if none by end of week, but no ticker context. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Speculates an unspecified bidder could get a deal done at 72c, but ticker context is missing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Speculates an unspecified party may rebid for the whole company soon. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | HUM.AX | @puppyeh1 | +0.35 | AA nominee not yet appointed to board; author says AA is creeping and business must be broken up. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Argues early technology transitions start concentrated then broaden, using LCD analogy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Skeptical that customized DRAM can decommoditize after becoming a commodity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Skeptical that memory cycle relationship no longer applies despite relative value versus AI names. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Says managers do not care about stock and it is not where to be invested. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Challenges anyone to frame content bullishly for the AI capex space. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | GOOG | @puppyeh1 | -0.55 | Says GOOG paying MU 85% gross margin and 4x ASPs is bad for Google. | +4.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | MU | @puppyeh1 | +0.55 | Says GOOG paying MU 85% gross margin and 4x ASPs is bad for Google. | -19.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Calls cyclical bubble environment insane and equities priced as if it persists. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @puppyeh1 | · | Dismisses bullish memory-cycle analysis as ignoring commodity-cycle history. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | SPCX | @puppyeh1 | -0.25 | Likes memory relative value but skeptical of unprofitable LLM valuations and SPCX/Grok exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.