@semivision_tw semivision_tw
Anonymous deep-dive analyst of the Asian AI-semiconductor supply chain from materials up
Publishes original, mechanistic theses on AI hardware bottle
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.02% mean alpha, trader score -0.02. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 49 mentions with price data).
semivision_tw is focused on AI infrastructure supply-chain constraints rather than explicit trades, with attention on TSM advanced packaging, NVDA system-level AI platforms, and MRVL power delivery. The distinctive read is that compute scaling is pushing bottlenecks into packaging formats, substrate materials, optical interconnect, HVDC, and MLCC/passive supply chains. No position disclosures, directional calls, adds, trims, or clear late-week pivot appear in this payload.
The author is not making explicit trade calls in this window; the signal set is research-heavy and concentrated on AI infrastructure bottlenecks across packaging, interconnect, and power delivery. There is no evidence of intensifying, fading, flipping, adds, trims, or exits from the provided signals. Tickered attention is mostly positive on NVDA, TSM, and MRVL, but many signals are thematic with no single-stock action.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Says everyone is trying to build their own chips, implying broad custom silicon trend. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Explains higher current creates I2R losses, heat, and power-delivery stress in AI infrastructure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | INTC | @semivision_tw | +0.10 | Reviews two Intel papers on CPO optical coupling packaging technology. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Frames co-packaged optics as important for AI data centers as copper interconnect limits emerge. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSM | @semivision_tw | +0.25 | Compares TSMC's cautious High-NA stance to EUV adoption and manufacturing edge development. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Reports IEDM 2026 dates and paper submission deadlines. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSM | @semivision_tw | +0.35 | Taiwan ministry highlights TSMC's 16 fab and advanced packaging projects in Taiwan. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Discusses memory disaggregation with CPO, CXL, and OCS for AI models beyond on-package HBM. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Argues all-photonic networks become core AI infrastructure as inference networking bottlenecks grow. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | GOOGL | @semivision_tw | +0.25 | Discusses optical switching in Google TPU clusters to reduce network power, latency and cost. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSM | @semivision_tw | +0.40 | Taiwan MOEA approved TSMC's plan to inject US$20B into TSMC Arizona. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TSM | @semivision_tw | +0.30 | Frames TSMC US expansion as political, economic and national-security semiconductor strategy. | -2.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Argues AI is redistributing economic power toward small businesses and creators. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @semivision_tw | -0.45 | Suggests market views Zuck's idle asset comment as admitting AI compute demand is not unlimited. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @semivision_tw | · | Describes semiconductor shift from transistor scaling to system architecture across AI edge use cases. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.