@StableBread StableBread
Rigorous long-only fundamental deep-diver on AI-infra SPACs and small-cap value.
Publishes long-form, valuation-driven fundamental research a
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 75% hit rate, +3.56% mean alpha, trader score +1.96. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.0% since posting (mean over 68 mentions with price data).
StableBread focused most heavily on QXO, arguing the market should underwrite Brad Jacobs' roll-up playbook after acquired assets flow through reported results. The other major thread was SHAZ, where he highlighted Nvidia-linked compute contracts while flagging the gap between signed backlog and current revenue. CALM was treated more skeptically, with boom-year earnings and dividend yield framed as likely to normalize.
The week is concentrated in a bullish QXO roll-up framework, with building-products comps used to defend fair value and upside after the TopBuild deal. SHAZ became a new high-attention thread around Nvidia-linked compute contracts, while CALM coverage stayed mixed with clear caution on normalized earnings and dividend risk. No clean trade flip is visible from the supplied signals; the only CALL_DIRECTIONAL signal lacks a ticker, so it is excluded from conviction trades.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @StableBread | · | States TopBuild margin gap versus Beacon is the thesis, but no ticker is named. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @StableBread | · | Mentions several names have run and carry China flood risk, teasing protected 7th name. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | VKA.AX | @StableBread | -0.25 | Viking Mines framed as early-stage, no resource yet, assays are key downside risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TUNG | @StableBread | -0.15 | American Tungsten described as well-funded but no resource, study, or production date. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | GMET | @StableBread | -0.25 | Guardian Metal has strong study but author says market is already paying up. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TGN.AX | @StableBread | -0.20 | Tungsten Mining has permitted project but no revenue, unfunded build, and 2027 earliest output. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | EQR.AX | @StableBread | +0.20 | EQ Resources benefits if tungsten stays high, but has high cost leverage if prices normalize. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ALM | @StableBread | +0.30 | Calls Almonty highest-quality producer, with low costs and expansion funding, but valuation is rich. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @StableBread | · | Tungsten squeeze narrative: record prices after China export restrictions and Western miners as bets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CELH | @StableBread | +0.20 | Links to author's deep dive on CELH without standalone thesis in this tweet. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | PEP | @StableBread | +0.00 | CELH framed as cheaper relative to faster growth versus peers and margin upside. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | KO | @StableBread | +0.00 | CELH framed as cheaper relative to faster growth versus peers and margin upside. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | COCO | @StableBread | +0.00 | CELH framed as cheaper relative to faster growth versus peers and margin upside. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CELH | @StableBread | +0.65 | CELH framed as cheaper relative to faster growth versus peers and margin upside. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MNST | @StableBread | +0.00 | CELH framed as cheaper relative to faster growth versus peers and margin upside. | — | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.