@stevehou stevehou
Institutional AI-cycle macro thinker expressing big themes through specific equities
Posts dense original macro/thematic frameworks on the AI com
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.70% mean alpha, trader score -1.47. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.9% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
Stevehou is mainly trading a macro rates view: oil shock fears are overdone, the Fed is dovish, and 2-year and 10-year yields should move lower. Single-stock discussion is concentrated in AI infrastructure and model competition, with constructive reads on Google/Anthropic, Intel packaging relevance, and a bearish Meta AI-spend critique. Late in the window, the focus shifts more toward US-China AI rivalry and trillion-dollar AI capex framing rather than fresh equity calls.
Conviction is concentrated in a dovish rates call, with two explicit directional signals for lower yields and repeated support from Fed, inflation-gauge, and oil-oversupply framing. Equity commentary is selective rather than trade-heavy: constructive on Google-linked AI progress and Intel packaging relevance, bearish on Meta AI spending. The AI-rivalry theme builds late in the window, while there are no explicit position adds, trims, exits, or ticker-level flips.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @stevehou | · | Speculates Lagarde leaving ECB, framed as politically overdue. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | · | @stevehou | · | Says ECB made a policy mistake by raising rates, while Fed influence is reduced. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | · | @stevehou | · | Cites bank oil analysts saying global oil market is set to swing back into oversupply. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @stevehou | · | Quote says labor market is not as strong as recent data suggests. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @stevehou | · | Praises software beneficiaries of agentic AI in a market dominated by AI hardware. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @stevehou | · | Quotes view that 2026 may see robotics accelerate with humanoids as capex destination. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @stevehou | · | Notes oil back to pre-Iran war levels despite unresolved conflict, implying attention exhaustion. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @stevehou | · | Argues LLM AI-driven systematic trading should be early to work because trading is verifiable and grindable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @stevehou | · | Long framework contrasting U.S. and China AI capex constraints, supply elasticity, chips, power, and ROI. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @stevehou | · | Brief macro bullish call for a summer melt-up, with no ticker or mechanics. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @stevehou | · | Talks are back on just before futures open, implying positive market catalyst. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @stevehou | · | AI compute buildout cost is convex, requiring even more convex marginal revenue. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @stevehou | · | Sovereign AI framed as technological and economic sovereignty for countries and companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @stevehou | · | Compares AI model economics to US pharma innovation and generics pricing incentives. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @stevehou | · | Agentic AI GPU rental curve has risen and flattened across term structure. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.