Author

@stevehou stevehou

Institutional AI-cycle macro thinker expressing big themes through specific equities

Posts dense original macro/thematic frameworks on the AI com

trader score
+0.40
hit rate
35%
mean α
+0.34%
signals 14d
33

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, +0.34% mean alpha, trader score +0.40. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.8% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@stevehou·Frames monetary policy as constrained and secondary to fiscal and foreign-policy inflation forces.·
2026-08-28·@stevehou·Interprets Warsh's inflation and rate-hike comments as inconsistent but distinctly hawkish.·
2026-08-26·@stevehou·The author rejects an AI-driven 10% GDP scenario as economically incoherent and unsustainable.·
2026-08-26·@stevehou·Says performance numbers show Chinese EV makers are making meaningful progress.·
2026-08-25·@stevehou·Defends increased Treasury bill issuance as prudent rather than politically motivated.·
2026-08-25·@stevehou·Views bonds near fair value with favorable cyclicals but grim secular fundamentals.·
2026-08-25·@stevehou·Observes federal tax receipts have stayed near 17% of GDP despite major policy changes.·
2026-08-25·@stevehou·Questions the credibility of AI leaders who simultaneously warn their own work may be dangerous.·
2026-08-25·@stevehou·AI writing quality is improving, but social resistance and tuning needs may slow adoption.·
2026-08-25·@stevehou·Argues structural deficits and debt service put the US on a path toward fiscal crisis and reduced global influence.·
2026-08-24·@stevehou·Argues AI will not be meaningfully disinflationary soon, though cyclical forces may dominate near term.·
2026-08-24·@stevehou·Presents US debt, spending and tax arithmetic as an unsustainable structural fiscal crisis.·
2026-08-24·@stevehou·Announces research arguing for cash-settled compute futures.·
2026-08-24·@stevehou·Argues oil shocks accelerate permanent EV substitution and reduce long-run oil consumption.·
2026-08-23AAPL@stevehou+0.25Uses Apple's revenue concentration to frame closed frontier AI tokens as premium economic output.+3.3%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.