Author
@stevehou stevehou
grade Ax.com/stevehou ↗
Institutional AI-cycle macro thinker expressing big themes through specific equities
Posts dense original macro/thematic frameworks on the AI com
trader score
+0.40
hit rate
35%
mean α
+0.34%
signals 14d
33
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, +0.34% mean alpha, trader score +0.40. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.8% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @stevehou | · | Frames monetary policy as constrained and secondary to fiscal and foreign-policy inflation forces. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @stevehou | · | Interprets Warsh's inflation and rate-hike comments as inconsistent but distinctly hawkish. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @stevehou | · | The author rejects an AI-driven 10% GDP scenario as economically incoherent and unsustainable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @stevehou | · | Says performance numbers show Chinese EV makers are making meaningful progress. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @stevehou | · | Defends increased Treasury bill issuance as prudent rather than politically motivated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @stevehou | · | Views bonds near fair value with favorable cyclicals but grim secular fundamentals. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @stevehou | · | Observes federal tax receipts have stayed near 17% of GDP despite major policy changes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @stevehou | · | Questions the credibility of AI leaders who simultaneously warn their own work may be dangerous. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @stevehou | · | AI writing quality is improving, but social resistance and tuning needs may slow adoption. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @stevehou | · | Argues structural deficits and debt service put the US on a path toward fiscal crisis and reduced global influence. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @stevehou | · | Argues AI will not be meaningfully disinflationary soon, though cyclical forces may dominate near term. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @stevehou | · | Presents US debt, spending and tax arithmetic as an unsustainable structural fiscal crisis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @stevehou | · | Announces research arguing for cash-settled compute futures. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @stevehou | · | Argues oil shocks accelerate permanent EV substitution and reduce long-run oil consumption. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | AAPL | @stevehou | +0.25 | Uses Apple's revenue concentration to frame closed frontier AI tokens as premium economic output. | +3.3% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.