Author

@TimDuy TimDuy

Named macroeconomist dissecting Fed policy and a structurally-higher inflation regime

Posts (mostly via quote-tweets) original macroeconomic comme

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
7

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).

Recent signals7receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-27·@TimDuy·A hot August inflation print would barely change the three-month average as May rolls off.·
2026-08-26·@TimDuy·Argues rapid chip depreciation can accelerate replacement demand.·
2026-08-25·@TimDuy·Sarcastically mocks the idea that improved consumer sentiment must imply a worse future.·
2026-08-24·@TimDuy·Recalls Treasury describing roughly $800 billion as a prudent cash-holding level.·
2026-08-24·@TimDuy·Speculates Bessent targeted the 30-year Treasury because lower liquidity could make it easier to move.·
2026-08-23·@TimDuy·Fed official Goolsbee characterized the last three inflation readings as encouraging.·
2026-08-21·@TimDuy·Argues job losses undermine simultaneous 3% growth and deficit targets·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.