Author
@TimmerFidelity TimmerFidelity
Fidelity macro strategist publishing chart-driven, model-grounded cross-asset frameworks
Publishes original macro and asset-allocation research — Fed
trader score
-1.28
hit rate
20%
mean α
-1.29%
signals 14d
46
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 5 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -1.29% mean alpha, trader score -1.28. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.0% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | GLD | @TimmerFidelity | -0.15 | Links gold's range to inflows and decelerating global liquidity. | -4.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Argues commodities, managed futures and short TIPS improve diversification. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Maintains a cautious cyclical-bull thesis while suggesting the melt-up paused. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Chart compares price and valuation gains across bull markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Quantifies historical and current bull-market duration, gains and valuation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Frames the aging cyclical bull against long-run market-cycle history. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Provides historical bear-market frequencies, drawdowns and durations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Says the 1998-2000 bubble analog has reached its climax but may soon diverge due to valuations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Questions whether 30-40% earnings growth is sustainable and notes investors historically discount peak growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Balances record technology-led margins against skepticism that current growth is uniquely sustainable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Warns investors are paying historically rich multiples for potentially peak earnings growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Attributes tightening conditions to real rates, the dollar, and widening credit spreads. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Forecasts Q3 earnings growth could reach 30-35% versus 25% consensus as momentum accelerates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Calls a late-cycle phase where tightening conditions are beginning to restrain earnings-led momentum. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Weak breadth and tightening conditions are pressuring companies with weaker balance sheets. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.