Author
@TimmerFidelity TimmerFidelity
Fidelity macro strategist publishing chart-driven, model-grounded cross-asset frameworks
Publishes original macro and asset-allocation research — Fed
trader score
-1.48
hit rate
14%
mean α
-1.03%
signals 14d
36
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 7 scored bets: 14% hit rate, -1.03% mean alpha, trader score -1.48. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -2.3% since posting (mean over 5 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | BTC | @TimmerFidelity | +0.50 | Bitcoin is described as holding its power-law floor and completing the time requirement of a mild cycle winter. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | BTC | @TimmerFidelity | +0.25 | Bitcoin is testing $80,000 resistance; a breakout would confirm a double bottom. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | GLD | @TimmerFidelity | +0.72 | Values gold at at least $5,000 and sees further upside if global money-supply growth accelerates. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | BTC | @TimmerFidelity | +0.10 | Gold and Bitcoin correlations with equities and bonds have recently declined. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | GOLD | @TimmerFidelity | +0.10 | Gold and Bitcoin correlations with equities and bonds have recently declined. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | GOLD | @TimmerFidelity | +0.70 | Author believes gold and Bitcoin have substantial further upside after lagging momentum. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | BTC | @TimmerFidelity | +0.70 | Author believes gold and Bitcoin have substantial further upside after lagging momentum. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | BTC | @TimmerFidelity | +0.70 | Fiscal dominance and monetary easing are framed as bullish for gold and Bitcoin. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | GOLD | @TimmerFidelity | +0.80 | Fiscal dominance and monetary easing are framed as bullish for gold and Bitcoin. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Calls global rates a secular bear market as long yields continue making highs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Frames hyperscaler bond issuance and equity raising as widening corporate-market crowding effects. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Argues the Fed may need to reverse 2025 cuts or markets will tighten financial conditions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SPX | @TimmerFidelity | +0.35 | Cites healthy 74% breadth and equal-weight participation as a constructive technical picture. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Mag 7 leadership is fading while Europe and Japan lead, reducing concentration concerns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @TimmerFidelity | · | Semiconductor exposure remains crowded near a possible cycle peak. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.