Author
@TMTLongShort TMTLongShort
grade Ax.com/TMTLongShort ↗
Anon TMT long/short thinker turning an AI-scaling worldview into relative-value bets
Posts dense original frameworks on AI compute/scaling laws,
trader score
+0.92
hit rate
56%
mean α
+0.44%
signals 14d
24
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 16 scored bets: 56% hit rate, +0.44% mean alpha, trader score +0.92. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.7% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | TSLA | @TMTLongShort | +0.35 | Lists long-horizon predictions including long compute and a TSLA-SpaceX merger. | +4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Warns crypto owners of near-term fear from anticipated cryptography breakthroughs by AI labs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Argues Chinese AI labs face major monetization pressure after distillation was solved. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | SOXX | @TMTLongShort | -0.10 | Describes uncertainty over lab ARR and its implications for semiconductors and neoclouds. | -7.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Bullish 12–18 month compute thesis expects better models, faster adoption and renewed ARR acceleration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Explicitly discloses being heavily long the compute theme. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SOXX | @TMTLongShort | +0.35 | Argues investors are overreacting to temporary software outperformance versus semiconductors. | -12.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | IGV | @TMTLongShort | +0.15 | Argues investors are overreacting to temporary software outperformance versus semiconductors. | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Argues agent-to-agent AI usage will drive mass layoffs as firms redirect spending to tokens. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | META | @TMTLongShort | +0.55 | Argues Meta's AI investment can create a usage-data loop for glasses and VR. | -13.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | META | @TMTLongShort | +0.25 | Relays Zuckerberg's statement that Meta's core MSL team nears 100 researchers. | -13.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Expresses a broad thesis that demand for AI intelligence is unlimited. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Frames concentrated private control of AI compute as a catalyst for restructuring academia. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Argues AI will displace finance jobs and sustain the compute trade near term | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Geopolitical framework predicts Iran escalation and European energy scarcity | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.