@TMTLongShort TMTLongShort
Anon TMT long/short thinker turning an AI-scaling worldview into relative-value bets
Posts dense original frameworks on AI compute/scaling laws,
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 19 scored bets: 58% hit rate, +0.38% mean alpha, trader score +1.27. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.3% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).
TMTLongShort is not posting many tradeable single-name calls this window; the book of ideas is dominated by AI compute demand, hyperscaler/model cadence, robotics, and geopolitical decoupling frameworks. The only explicit ticker exposure is constructive on GOOGL and MSFT via the view that frontier pre-training cadence still matters and Google/OpenAI should not be counted out. Late-week posts broaden from Iran and export-control frameworks into AI governance, robotics, and hyperscaler commodity implications, without a clean position flip.
No discrete add, trim, exit, or flip is visible because the window contains no CALL_DIRECTIONAL or POSITION_DISCLOSURE signals. The author is consistently concentrated in macro AI and geopolitics, with the only ticker-specific stance mildly bullish on GOOGL and MSFT through model-cadence relevance. Concentration risk is thematic rather than single-name, with most signals tied to AI demand, decoupling, Iran, export controls, and policy-managed markets.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | AI scaling laws and compute scarcity framework says compute remains necessary resource. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Framework argues AI broadens tech investing into geopolitics, industrials, commodities, finance, and bio. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Long AI macro framework about capital flows, scarcity, institutions, and political risks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @TMTLongShort | +0.20 | Says NBIS terms showed Meta/Zuck would not quit after report. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NBIS | @TMTLongShort | +0.45 | Says NBIS terms showed Meta/Zuck would not quit after report. | -5.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Framework on Semax, AGI, longevity breakthroughs, and medical uplift market. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Macro framework linking AI labor disruption, consumer confidence, and Fed cuts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Says AI layoffs are coming and Warsh will be very dovish, implying easier policy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Author warns Iran escalation risk could rise before July 4 weekend. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Author says still holding gold despite geopolitical selling risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Broad framework on dollar shortage, geopolitics, AI capex, reindustrialization, and liquidity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Quantifies China demand reduction and its effect on oil prices with cited bpd estimates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Bullish long-term view that AI plus expertise will enable major scientific breakthroughs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Framework that AI rents accruing to US incumbents may harm startups but fund capex and tax base. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Argues frontier AI increases demand for supporting compute and sub-frontier agents. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.