Author
@TMTLongShort TMTLongShort
grade Ax.com/TMTLongShort ↗
Anon TMT long/short thinker turning an AI-scaling worldview into relative-value bets
Posts dense original frameworks on AI compute/scaling laws,
trader score
-0.18
hit rate
33%
mean α
-0.10%
signals 14d
30
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 18 scored bets: 33% hit rate, -0.10% mean alpha, trader score -0.18. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.2% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Predicts AI-related layoffs will arrive quickly and be followed by dovish rate cuts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Lays out a bullish geopolitical and AI-compute scenario involving regime change and tighter compute supply. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Forecasts an Alberta referendum and potential USMCA confrontation that could disrupt Canadian trade. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Long-term framework argues frontier labs will king-make incumbents and reshape enterprise profit pools. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Warns Russia-Ukraine escalation and mobilization could materially increase geopolitical tail risks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Argues smarter autonomous agents will remove human prompting as the key AI adoption bottleneck. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Jokes that a new Anthropic model may surpass state of the art and renew demand for access. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Suggests US policy implies limited fear of an oil-price shock during Iran escalation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Presents geopolitical decoupling as a framework for US hegemony, exports, bond issuance and wages. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Author presents a geopolitical framework linking China, Europe and market intervention. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Warns that escalation and Iranian sleeper-cell risks are materially underappreciated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Argues AI model-progression rates are the central undertracked variable for both long and short AI trades. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Presents a long-term framework for tariffs, Western decoupling from China and geopolitical leverage. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Outlines conditions for Chinese capitulation and argues strategic decoupling is inevitable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @TMTLongShort | · | Bullish long-term thesis on the large addressable market and scaling economics of humanoid robots. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.