Author
@UrbanKaoboy UrbanKaoboy
grade Ax.com/UrbanKaoboy ↗
Pseudonymous structured-credit and oil-macro thinker fusing CLO mechanics with regime scenarios
Posts original macro frameworks (oil, USD, Fed, stagflation
trader score
+0.76
hit rate
56%
mean α
+0.31%
signals 14d
18
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 16 scored bets: 56% hit rate, +0.31% mean alpha, trader score +0.76. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.7% since posting (mean over 10 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.60 | Insider behavior is framed as lacking confidence in CRWV. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @UrbanKaoboy | · | Warns debt-funded AI investment threatens a disinflationary-growth outcome. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TLT | @UrbanKaoboy | +0.25 | TLT's reversal is viewed as a warning about the broader economy and markets. | +3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @UrbanKaoboy | · | Argues a return to 2-3% Fed funds would most likely require a severe economic and market bust. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | FMCKJ | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.80 | Argues GSE preferreds and common shares are worth little because SPS forgiveness is increasingly unlikely. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | FNMAS | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.80 | Argues GSE preferreds and common shares are worth little because SPS forgiveness is increasingly unlikely. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | FNMA | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.80 | Argues GSE preferreds and common shares are worth little because SPS forgiveness is increasingly unlikely. | +15.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | FMCC | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.80 | Argues GSE preferreds and common shares are worth little because SPS forgiveness is increasingly unlikely. | +17.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | IWM | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.20 | High long-term yields and narrow breadth are framed as threats to long-duration equities. | -1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | SPX | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.35 | High long-term yields and narrow breadth are framed as threats to long-duration equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @UrbanKaoboy | · | Argues debt-funded AI expansion and leveraged-credit stress will throttle economic growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | TLT | @UrbanKaoboy | +0.45 | Discloses existing TLT calls and says robust Treasury auctions may support them. | +5.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | QQQ | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.75 | Bought slightly OTM QQQ put spreads. — Explicitly enters bearish QQQ put spreads based on rates and narrow market breadth. | -7.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | IWM | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.45 | Uses small caps as a warning sign for a potential broader market downturn. | -0.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | TLT | @UrbanKaoboy | -0.65 | Says TLT's double-bottom has failed and warns downside may continue. | +5.4% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.