Author
@WarrenPies WarrenPies
grade Ax.com/WarrenPies ↗
Rigorous original macro strategist fusing historical base rates with cross-asset mechanics
Builds and shares original top-down macro frameworks and qua
trader score
+0.84
hit rate
67%
mean α
+0.60%
signals 14d
15
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 9 scored bets: 67% hit rate, +0.60% mean alpha, trader score +0.84.
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Market-implied odds of a September rate hike are reported at 53% and judged more sensible. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @WarrenPies | · | The author summarizes Warsh's remarks as hawkish given strong activity, stable labor, and concerning inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | SPX | @WarrenPies | +0.30 | Author calls semiconductor results bullish but keeps benchmark exposure and overall risk low. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Discloses a reduction from overweight to benchmark weight without naming the asset. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Expects dovish but unclear Jackson Hole messaging from Warsh and dismisses it as platitudes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Reports core PCE at 0.25% month over month and September hike odds rising to 40%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Discloses that the author's equity risk was recently neutralized. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Quantifies gross issuance at 4% of market cap and compares it with the calendar-year median. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Warns of unusually dramatic weakness in pockets of the market but says it is too early for broad conclusions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Calls an unspecified situation notable and worth monitoring without expressing panic. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Argues Treasury buybacks resemble a small Operation Twist and affect assets through the duration channel, not QE reserves. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Author warns offsets cannot prevent a broad residential-construction shortfall if starts stay depressed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @WarrenPies | · | July single-family starts fell below 70,000, the second-lowest post-pandemic reading. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Author identifies Lab ARR as a proxy for external capital entering the AI ecosystem. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-15 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Reports K3 has significantly slower time per completed task than Opus 5 or GPT 5.6 | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.