Author
@WarrenPies WarrenPies
grade Ax.com/WarrenPies ↗
Rigorous original macro strategist fusing historical base rates with cross-asset mechanics
Builds and shares original top-down macro frameworks and qua
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
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Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals13receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Argues successful AI investment would absorb liquidity from lower-quality crypto assets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Mocks crypto advocates for characterizing AI as a bubble. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Argues rising GPU rents materially improve AI-infrastructure IRR assumptions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | SPX | @WarrenPies | +0.40 | Dismisses the concern and argues its bond impact may be index-positive. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Expects hot early-2027 data and sees risk of a broader rate-hike cycle. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Argues hiking until yield-curve inversion in response to 3% inflation is unreasonable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Expects priced rate hikes to fade while warning the Fed's SEP may still be too dovish. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Interprets bear steepening from 26 to 53 bps as pricing a two-hike mini-cycle and higher neutral rate. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Reports ex-lab startup funding just below $300 billion on a trailing-12-month basis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Says joint rallies in semiconductors and hyperscalers should produce new index highs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Raises a non-base-case risk that higher rates could weaken the AI capital-expenditure cycle. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Forecasts long-run labor weakness in finance, technology and services versus relative safety in physical and government-linked work. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | · | @WarrenPies | · | Uses employment figures to argue AI-driven labor displacement will intensify and spread next year. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.