Author · brief 2026-06-22

@AlmaCap114204 AlmaCap114204

grade Ax.com/AlmaCap114204 ↗

Deep-research AI-memory and space thematic trader with conviction calls and disclosed positions

Posts original, supply-chain-grounded long theses and real-t

trader score
+1.01
hit rate
50%
mean α
+1.26%
signals 14d
77

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +1.26% mean alpha, trader score +1.01. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -8.4% since posting (mean over 45 mentions with price data).

Space upside and memory value dominate bullish book

AlmaCap is concentrated in ASTS and the broader space trade, while also pressing a memory/HBM value thesis around Hynix, Samsung exposure, MU, and SNDK. Their distinctive read is that space catalysts can drive multibag returns while traditional finance is mispricing memory quality and HBM economics. They also adds a constructive foundry-demand angle for INTC/SMSD and a bearish macro-AI-model view offset by bullish open-source/META demand.

Themes4analyst read · 2026-06-22
▲Space launch catalysts and multibagger setups
bullconsistent19 signals
ASTSFLYSPCXRKLB
⚠ 42% of theme signals are ASTS — flag pump risk
▲Memory and HBM value dislocation
bullfading8 signals
SQMUSNDK
⚠ 50% of theme signals are MU — flag pump risk
▲Foundry demand from scanner compute adoption
bullNEW4 signals
INTCSMSD
⚠ 50% of theme signals are INTC — flag pump risk
◆Open-source AI beneficiaries versus frontier model pressure
mixedconsistent1 signals
META
⚠ 100% of theme signals are META — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in ASTS and the space basket, with explicit long calls on ASTS, FLY, and SPCX followed by ASTS launch-related gain recaps. Memory/HBM remains a large bullish theme through direct Hynix/Samsung discussion and listed MU/SNDK multibagger exposure, but several Samsung-related disclosures lack usable tickers. No clear flip appears; the window is mostly consistent bullish positioning with a mixed AI view: bearish frontier-model economics but constructive open-source/META implications.

Position disclosures2skin in the game
SQ Holds Square alongside direct Hynix exposure and says they are not selling either held
ASTS Personally positioned in ASTS with confidence in Falcon9 launch and deployment held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
▲Capital is rotating into photonics and physical AI infrastructure, making AAOI a leadership beneficiary within the new m
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
▲Capital is rotating into AI infrastructure and memory leaders, making SNDK a preferred high-beta leadership vehicle.
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
▼AI financing and capex needs may drain liquidity from megacap platforms while benefiting semis, memory, power and infras
bearHIGH8 co-supporters
▼Blue Origin's New Glenn incident and sector cooling can pressure space stocks by puncturing the recent euphoric trade.
bearMEDIUM4 co-supporters
▲CLFD can re-rate as fiber connectivity becomes a direct beneficiary of AI infrastructure and data-center buildout demand
bullMEDIUM4 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03·@AlmaCap114204·Says Samsung priced like Hynix despite also having foundry, implying valuation upside.·
2026-07-03·@AlmaCap114204·States supply-chain diversification is bullish for Samsung.·
2026-07-03·@AlmaCap114204·Expresses bullish excitement that Samsung will benefit, but no ticker is provided.·
2026-07-02·@AlmaCap114204·Bullish memory-demand thesis: demand forecast to 5x by 2030 while supply only doubles.·
2026-07-02·@AlmaCap114204·Discloses main position in Samsung Electronics preferreds and stays bullish on AI capex.·
2026-07-02·@AlmaCap114204·Bullish on Samsung Foundry comeback and says the dip is a gift.·
2026-07-01KEEL@AlmaCap114204+0.70Added FRMI and KEEL; memory stocks can deliver 4x+ by 2030 — Author added FRMI and KEEL and states a bullish long-term memory thesis.-14.7%
2026-07-01FRMI@AlmaCap114204+0.70Added FRMI and KEEL; memory stocks can deliver 4x+ by 2030 — Author added FRMI and KEEL and states a bullish long-term memory thesis.-5.4%
2026-07-01FLY@AlmaCap114204+0.65FLY is a buy here; author has added — Explicit current buy/add statement for FLY.+1.9%
2026-07-01LUNR@AlmaCap114204+0.35Reports LUNR and FLY received CLPS awards.-3.1%
2026-07-01FLY@AlmaCap114204+0.35Reports LUNR and FLY received CLPS awards.+1.9%
2026-07-01ASTS@AlmaCap114204+0.20Added back SIVE at 53 SEK post dilution — Explicit buyback/add in SIVE at a lower price; RKLB and ASTS cited as past examples.-1.1%
2026-07-01SIVE@AlmaCap114204+0.75Added back SIVE at 53 SEK post dilution — Explicit buyback/add in SIVE at a lower price; RKLB and ASTS cited as past examples.·
2026-07-01RKLB@AlmaCap114204+0.20Added back SIVE at 53 SEK post dilution — Explicit buyback/add in SIVE at a lower price; RKLB and ASTS cited as past examples.+0.4%
2026-06-29SNDK@AlmaCap114204+0.55Says NAND shortage and memory tax drive SNDK and Kioxia up with no relief in sight.-14.9%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.