Author
@blackrobert2024 blackrobert2024
grade Bx.com/blackrobert2024 ↗
Contrarian value/macro thinker who stress-tests crowded AI and EM narratives with positioning data
Writes long-form, multi-factor theses (often in Spanish) sep
trader score
+0.47
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.29%
signals 14d
43
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.29% mean alpha, trader score +0.47. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.8% since posting (mean over 25 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | CRM | @blackrobert2024 | +0.30 | Highlights analysis of a potentially large CRM move around the 150 zone. | +24.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @blackrobert2024 | · | Argues retail's edge is cash, patience, and buying good assets during market stress. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | META | @blackrobert2024 | +0.65 | Argues reduced legal uncertainty can drive position rebuilding and short covering in META. | +0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | META | @blackrobert2024 | +0.90 | META will surge today; the author asks whether followers loaded up. — Explicitly predicts META will fly today and implies followers should already be long. | +0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @blackrobert2024 | · | Explains how market narratives progress from discovery through institutionalization to saturation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | MATW | @blackrobert2024 | +0.55 | Sum-of-parts value thesis says MATW priced in multiple failures while its memorial business covers much of value. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | KKR | @blackrobert2024 | +0.20 | Endorses third-party quantitative work viewing KKR moderately amid a punished private-credit sector. | +1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | MATW | @blackrobert2024 | -0.25 | Reports Howard Marks owns MATW bought at 27 and notes its 20% fall after a miss and guidance cut. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | YPF | @blackrobert2024 | +0.00 | Reports Howard Marks owns MATW bought at 27 and notes its 20% fall after a miss and guidance cut. | +0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | KKR | @blackrobert2024 | +0.00 | Contrasts Akre's 26% KKR sale with buying by Dodge & Cox and ValueAct. | +1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @blackrobert2024 | · | Reports a fund collapsing from a 439% first-half gain to a 67% monthly loss from leverage and concentration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @blackrobert2024 | · | Explains how Citadel may benefit from long-yield volatility and wider Treasury spreads. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @blackrobert2024 | · | Warns that averaging down lowers cost basis but does not ensure a recovery. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @blackrobert2024 | · | Semiconductor inflows reversed by $6.3B over three weeks after gaining $55B in seven months, indicating cracking crowding. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @blackrobert2024 | · | Cited research argues LLM portfolios concentrate in prominent large caps, load on momentum and lack residual alpha. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.