@Bogachan_1971 Bogachan_1971
Anti-Fed perma-bear macro trader; gold as the only honest money, manipulation everywhere
Posts long-form bearish macro frameworks linking oil/energy
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 65% hit rate, +0.91% mean alpha, trader score +1.27. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.2% since posting (mean over 28 mentions with price data).
Bogachan_1971 is mainly trading a macro-liquidity framework: crypto is starved of excess capital, stocks and private-market issuance drain liquidity, and Japan/Fed dynamics keep FX and vol fragile. The distinctive read is that market signals are distorted by central-bank and money-supply mechanics, making crypto less useful as a risk gauge and AI/mega-cap valuations vulnerable to overpayment. No explicit trade adds or exits appear beyond a post-hoc crypto bail, but the window is heavily concentrated in bearish crypto/liquidity commentary.
The week is concentrated in bearish crypto/liquidity and valuation-excess frameworks, with BTC the most repeated ticker-level subject. There are no CALL_DIRECTIONAL adds, trims, or explicit position disclosures; the only trade-like item is a post-hoc recap saying the author bailed on crypto after an unimpressive rally. Tone stays consistently macro-bearish, while USDJPY and VIX emerge as stress expressions rather than disclosed trades.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | VIX | @Bogachan_1971 | +0.00 | Recaps prior sell EWY trade from SMH price action and says mostly out with quarter size left. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | EWY | @Bogachan_1971 | -0.45 | Recaps prior sell EWY trade from SMH price action and says mostly out with quarter size left. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SMH | @Bogachan_1971 | -0.20 | Recaps prior sell EWY trade from SMH price action and says mostly out with quarter size left. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IREN | @Bogachan_1971 | -0.35 | IREN on radar after pump/dump cycles; break of support would be bearish for overall market. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | VIX | @Bogachan_1971 | +0.35 | Uses VIX and oil to expect possible U.S. military action against Iran after close, risk-off in Asia/Europe. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPX | @Bogachan_1971 | -0.70 | Argues U.S. market is corrupt pump/dump regime and S&P 500 will eventually be worth under 0.50 gold coins. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Bogachan_1971 | · | Bullish metals manipulation framework argues China limits paper leverage and gold suppression. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | VIX | @Bogachan_1971 | -0.20 | Claims 0DTE is related to ongoing Fed VIX supply and retail management. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | EWY | @Bogachan_1971 | -0.80 | Sell Korea via EWY — Explicit forward sell call on Korea/EWY after AI shovel reversal. | -2.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Bogachan_1971 | · | Long macro historical framework comparing Dutch leverage collapse to U.S. debt and AI rentier thesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Bogachan_1971 | · | Claims oil futures manipulation via MOU and options, no specific ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | GOLD | @Bogachan_1971 | +0.55 | Sarcastically says Citi research would accelerate buying gold here. | +5.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | VIX | @Bogachan_1971 | -0.30 | Warns that selling VIX futures every morning has consequences. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @Bogachan_1971 | · | Says stocks keep rising for reasons other than Trump's claims. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | GOLD | @Bogachan_1971 | +0.55 | Macro thesis: gold may dive before stock collapse, then fly after Fed cuts and prints. | +5.7% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.