Ticker brief · 2026-06-22
BTC
Dip buyers clash with liquidity and treasury stress
Lean: mixedlast close
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1 day
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14 days
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mkt cap
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signals 14d
4,413
authors 14d
584
The tape is mixed: credible bulls frame BTC near $60K-$64K as an accumulation zone, while credible bears focus on tight liquidity, technical breakdown risk, and Strategy-linked funding stress. The most important late-week shift was the selloff narrative moving from generic macro weakness to STRC/MSTR reflexivity, ETF outflows, and forced-sale fears. Trade structure is barbelled between spot/DCA accumulation and explicit shorts or lower-entry plans around $50K-$60K.
No price history on file for this name (likely non-equity or unlisted) — the “since then” column below stays blank.
BULL CAMP
Bulls argue the drawdown is late-cycle capitulation rather than thesis failure: long-term holders, corporates, ETFs, and treasury vehicles are absorbing supply while BTC holds major support. The highest-conviction voices prefer spot BTC or staged accumulation over chasing leveraged proxies.
Key voices@saylorHIGHB+0.96@DBATTAGLIAYtubeMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.50@Micro2Macr0MEDIUM-HIGHC-1.26@scottmelkerMEDIUM-HIGHC+0.51@cantonmeowHIGHB-0.20
“Global capital has barely entered Bitcoin, leaving a large adoption runway.”— @saylor · tweet ↗
BEAR / SKEPTIC
Bears argue BTC remains a high-beta liquidity asset with weakening demand, fragile technicals, and growing reflexive risk from the Bitcoin treasury complex. Higher-credibility bears cluster around macro liquidity, Strategy/STRC stress, and explicit short exposure rather than simple anti-crypto rhetoric.
Key voices@KeithMcCulloughHIGHA+0.52@HedgeyeHIGHB-0.43@leadlagreportHIGHB-0.40@MacroAlphaHQLOW-MEDIUMA+1.15@philoinvestorMEDIUM-HIGHA-1.21
“Long USD versus short Bitcoin is the preferred macro correlation trade.”— @KeithMcCullough · tweet ↗
Hypotheses12direction · basis · magnitude · supporters — NEW = first seen this week
▲Corporate treasuries, whales, and long-term holders are absorbing liquid BTC supply, creating upside scarcity as weak hands capitulate.
@thepowerfulHRVMEDIUM-HIGHB+0.111s · insight@DBATTAGLIAYtubeMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.503s@saylorHIGHB+0.962s@alichartsMEDIUMC+0.621s@CoinDeskLOW-MEDIUMC-1.982s@CryptoPatelLOW-MEDIUMC+0.251s+2 more
▲Bitcoin remains superior hard money and reserve collateral, so fiat debasement and capital adoption support much higher long-term value.
@LynAldenContactHIGHA-1.022s · insight@saylorHIGHB+0.965s@DBATTAGLIAYtubeMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.502s@RonSwanonsonLOW-MEDIUMC-1.364s@Micro2Macr0MEDIUM-HIGHC-1.262s@WOLF_Bitcoin_MEDIUMC-1.252s+2 more
▲BTC is forming a durable bottom near $59K-$64K, with 200-week support and oversold signals favoring rebound.
@cantonmeowHIGHB-0.201s · insight@ViewsOfChrisMEDIUM-HIGHC-0.411s@StackerSatoshiMEDIUM-HIGHC+2.401s@scottmelkerMEDIUM-HIGHC+0.512s@CryptoMichNLLOW-MEDIUMB-0.224s@OrderBookShowMEDIUMC-0.052s+2 more
▲New ETFs, custody laws, reserve discussions, and payment adoption broaden Bitcoin access and strengthen institutional demand.
@BenzingaHIGHC-2.471s@tokensMEDIUMC+0.331s@scottmelkerMEDIUM-HIGHC+0.512s@HammerstoneMar3HIGHC+0.561s@WhaleFactorMEDIUMC+0.111s@CoinDeskLOW-MEDIUMC-1.982s+2 more
▲Lower oil, geopolitical de-escalation, and easier liquidity can revive risk appetite and pull capital back into BTC.
@StackerSatoshiMEDIUM-HIGHC+2.401s@WhaleFactorMEDIUMC+0.112s@DBATTAGLIAYtubeMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.501s@CryptosR_UsLOW-MEDIUMC+0.752s@FXEmpirecomMEDIUM-HIGHC-0.351s@BenzingaHIGHC-2.471s+1 more
▼BTC has broken key technical support, leaving downside targets from the high-$50Ks to $50K, $40K, or lower.
@DVSignalsMEDIUM-HIGHB-1.151s · insight@EchoAnalysisMEDIUMC+0.381s@CryptoPatelLOW-MEDIUMC+0.253s@TradeCyclesLOW-MEDIUMC-0.821s@BullsvsBearManLOW-MEDIUMC-2.101s@philoinvestorMEDIUM-HIGHA-1.212s · insight+2 more
▼A hawkish Fed, stronger dollar, and tighter global liquidity make BTC vulnerable as a high-beta macro asset.
@KeithMcCulloughHIGHA+0.523s · insight@kurtsaltrichterMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.691s · insight@MacroAlphaHQLOW-MEDIUMA+1.153s · insight@InvestiBrewMEDIUM-HIGHA-0.541s · insight@coinbureauLOW-MEDIUMC-0.432s@BitBrew1LOW-MEDIUMB+1.261s · insight+2 more
▼Strategy, STRC, and related BTC treasury vehicles create reflexive funding stress that could slow buys or force Bitcoin sales.
@HedgeyeHIGHB-0.433s · insight@leadlagreportHIGHB-0.402s · insight@juanbiterMEDIUM-HIGHB+0.164s · insight@StackerSatoshiMEDIUM-HIGHC+2.402s@TrendSpiderMEDIUM-HIGHC-0.581s@DanielMuvdiYTMEDIUM-HIGHB+0.861s · insight+2 more
▼ETF outflows, negative Coinbase premium, underwater holders, and whale selling show weak demand and institutional derisking.
@CointelegraphLOW-MEDIUMC-2.084s@SOU_BTCLOW-MEDIUMC-0.191s@CryptoNewsHntrsLOW-MEDIUMC-1.202s@coinbureauLOW-MEDIUMC-0.433s@CryptoPatelLOW-MEDIUMC+0.252s@FXEmpirecomMEDIUM-HIGHC-0.351s+1 more
▼Bitcoin lacks real monetary utility or intrinsic value, so narratives around hard money and adoption remain structurally fragile.
@Jesse_LivermoreHIGHA+1.141s · insight@EddyElfenbeinHIGHB+0.041s · insight@HatedMoatsMEDIUM-HIGHA-0.391s · insight@leadlagreportHIGHB-0.401s · insight@GAndersonTradesLOW-MEDIUMC-0.421s@RobertDurant7LOW-MEDIUMC-0.001s+2 more
▼Capital is rotating away from BTC toward AI, equities, ETH, or metals, leaving Bitcoin with worsening opportunity cost.
@Fuji__manaMEDIUMC-0.802s@Paul_SchatzHIGHC+1.371s@BirdywordHIGHA-0.291s · insight@WOLF_TradingXMEDIUMC+1.631s@RTB_ioMEDIUMC+1.321s@MacroAlphaHQLOW-MEDIUMA+1.153s · insight+2 more
▼Covered-call and income-oriented Bitcoin products cap upside or harvest retail fees, weakening the pure BTC upside case.
@MacroAlphaHQLOW-MEDIUMA+1.152s · insight@scottmelkerMEDIUM-HIGHC+0.511s@FINTECHTVglobalMEDIUM-HIGHC-1.671s@CoinDeskLOW-MEDIUMC-1.981s@MarcosMillaYTMEDIUMC-0.641s
Direct calls5authors taking explicit directional positions
@Micro2Macr0MEDIUM-HIGHC-1.26
Buy Bitcoin now.
@KeithMcCulloughHIGHA+0.52
Long USD versus short Bitcoin.
@philoinvestorMEDIUM-HIGHA-1.21
BTC to $18K.
@TradeCyclesLOW-MEDIUMC-0.82
BTC headed for another low, 49k inbound.
@DTfromGBMEDIUMC-0.68
Great time to DCA BTC.
Sellside activity5
Standard Chartered target PT 100000Said $59K was the cycle low and kept a $100K year-end BTC target.
Standard Chartered noteSaid crypto winter is ending and the BTC cycle bottom is behind.
Goldman noteProjected no Fed cuts until March 2027, framed as a Bitcoin headwind.
JPMorgan noteSaid 20% of Bitcoin miners are losing money, pressuring short-term price.
Citi target PT 189000Expected Bitcoin to reach $189K in 2026.
News / data points5discrete events + data quoted by authors
@scottmelkerMEDIUM-HIGHC+0.51
Michael Saylor teased a new BTC purchase late in the week.
@SOU_BTCLOW-MEDIUMC-0.19
Bitcoin ETFs reportedly saw record 30-day outflows of $6.35B.
@WhaleFactorMEDIUMC+0.11
Franklin Templeton filed dividend-reinvestment ETFs that route equity dividends into Bitcoin.
@scottmelkerMEDIUM-HIGHC+0.51
California passed a bill allowing banks to custody Bitcoin and offer digital asset services.
@CointelegraphLOW-MEDIUMC-2.08
Strategy's Bitcoin buying slowed as STRC traded below its target price.
Position disclosures3skin in the game
@brian_armstrongHIGHB-0.62
Still long Bitcoin and as bullish as ever.
@KeithMcCulloughHIGHA+0.52
Short Bitcoin alongside oil and other macro shorts.
@RTB_ioMEDIUMC+1.32
Relayed Ricardo Salinas holding 70% of portfolio in Bitcoin.
Desk readconvergence assessment
Views are not converged: bulls and bears agree the $59K-$65K zone matters, but disagree whether it is capitulation support or a pause before forced selling. The bull camp has several high-credibility long-term allocators, while the bear camp has higher-credibility macro and risk-management voices on the late-week liquidity/STRC stress. A decisive reclaim above $66K-$70K with ETF inflows would weaken bears; a break below $59K or confirmed Strategy funding stress would invalidate the accumulation case.
Tracked hypotheses — caliber-scored view · 2026-06-22
🟢 HIGH caliber (7)
📈 h2 bull · score 1.18
Bitcoin remains superior hard money and reserve collateral, so fiat debasement and capital adoption support much higher long-term value.
- Supporters (8): @LynAldenContact↗(HIGH,2p), @saylor↗(HIGH,5p), @DBATTAGLIAYtube↗(MEDIUM-,2p), @RonSwanonson↗(LOW-MED,4p), @Micro2Macr0↗(MEDIUM-,2p), +3
- Signals: 14 · Max author share: 0.26 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "Global capital has barely entered Bitcoin, leaving a large adoption runway." — saylor
📉 h10 bear · score 0.98
Bitcoin lacks real monetary utility or intrinsic value, so narratives around hard money and adoption remain structurally fragile.
- Supporters (8): @Jesse_Livermore↗(HIGH,1p), @EddyElfenbein↗(HIGH,1p), @HatedMoats↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @leadlagreport↗(HIGH,1p), @GAndersonTrades↗(LOW-MED,1p), +3
- Signals: 8 · Max author share: 0.12 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "Bitcoin is assigned intrinsic value of zero after valuation analysis." — HatedMoats
📈 h3 bull · score 0.73
BTC is forming a durable bottom near $59K-$64K, with 200-week support and oversold signals favoring rebound.
- Supporters (8): @cantonmeow↗(HIGH,1p), @ViewsOfChris↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @StackerSatoshi↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @scottmelker↗(MEDIUM-,2p), @CryptoMichNL↗(LOW-MED,4p), +3
- Signals: 12 · Max author share: 0.31 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "A monthly close above 65,180 would favor the bottom being in." — cantonmeow
📉 h7 bear · score 0.69
A hawkish Fed, stronger dollar, and tighter global liquidity make BTC vulnerable as a high-beta macro asset.
- Supporters (6): @KeithMcCullough↗(HIGH,3p), @kurtsaltrichter↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @MacroAlphaHQ↗(LOW-MED,3p), @InvestiBrew↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @BitBrew1↗(LOW-MED,1p), +1
- Signals: 13 · Max author share: 0.30 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "Long USD versus short Bitcoin is the preferred macro correlation trade." — KeithMcCullough
📉 h8 bear · score 0.61
Strategy, STRC, and related BTC treasury vehicles create reflexive funding stress that could slow buys or force Bitcoin sales.
- Supporters (7): @leadlagreport↗(HIGH,2p), @juanbiter↗(MEDIUM-,4p), @StackerSatoshi↗(MEDIUM-,2p), @TrendSpider↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @DanielMuvdiYT↗(MEDIUM-,1p), +2
- Signals: 15 · Max author share: 0.33 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "STRC hit an all-time low, which could increase pressure for Saylor to sell BTC." — Hedgeye
📈 h1 bull · score 0.53
Corporate treasuries, whales, and long-term holders are absorbing liquid BTC supply, creating upside scarcity as weak hands capitulate.
- Supporters (6): @thepowerfulHRV↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @DBATTAGLIAYtube↗(MEDIUM-,3p), @saylor↗(HIGH,2p), @alicharts↗(MEDIUM,1p), @CryptoPatel↗(LOW-MED,1p), +1
- Signals: 12 · Max author share: 0.33 · Novelty: stable
- Quote: "Long-term holder supply is high and dip buyers are absorbing weak-hand selling." — DBATTAGLIAYtube
📈 h5 bull · score 0.47
Lower oil, geopolitical de-escalation, and easier liquidity can revive risk appetite and pull capital back into BTC.
- Supporters (5): @StackerSatoshi↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @DBATTAGLIAYtube↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @CryptosR_Us↗(LOW-MED,2p), @Benzinga↗(HIGH,1p), @CryptoMichNL↗(LOW-MED,1p)
- Signals: 9 · Max author share: 0.33 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "Peace agreement and lower oil are framed as conditions for BTC and ETH to run." — WhaleFactor
🟡 MEDIUM caliber (4)
📈 h4 bull · score 0.60
New ETFs, custody laws, reserve discussions, and payment adoption broaden Bitcoin access and strengthen institutional demand.
- Supporters (4): @Benzinga↗(HIGH,1p), @tokens↗(MEDIUM,1p), @scottmelker↗(MEDIUM-,2p), @WOLFBitcoin(MEDIUM,1p)
- Signals: 11 · Max author share: 0.40 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "California advanced bank custody and digital asset services for Bitcoin." — scottmelker
📉 h6 bear · score 0.54
BTC has broken key technical support, leaving downside targets from the high-$50Ks to $50K, $40K, or lower.
- Supporters (8): @DVSignals↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @EchoAnalysis↗(MEDIUM,1p), @CryptoPatel↗(LOW-MED,3p), @TradeCycles↗(LOW-MED,1p), @BullsvsBearMan↗(LOW-MED,1p), +3
- Signals: 11 · Max author share: 0.27 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "A close below $59.8K would confirm a lower low and point toward $50K." — CryptoPatel
📉 h11 bear · score 0.50
Capital is rotating away from BTC toward AI, equities, ETH, or metals, leaving Bitcoin with worsening opportunity cost.
- Supporters (7): @Fuji_mana(MEDIUM,2p), @PaulSchatz(HIGH,1p), @Birdyword↗(HIGH,1p), @WOLF_TradingX↗(MEDIUM,1p), @MacroAlphaHQ↗(LOW-MED,3p), +2
- Signals: 11 · Max author share: 0.30 · Novelty: building
- Quote: "Crypto remains weak while AI and semiconductor stocks make highs." — Fuji__mana
📉 h12 bear · score 0.38
Covered-call and income-oriented Bitcoin products cap upside or harvest retail fees, weakening the pure BTC upside case.
- Supporters (4): @MacroAlphaHQ↗(LOW-MED,2p), @scottmelker↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @FINTECHTVglobal↗(MEDIUM-,1p), @MarcosMillaYT↗(MEDIUM,1p)
- Signals: 6 · Max author share: 0.40 · Novelty: stable
- Quote: "A 25% yield Bitcoin ETF is framed as a trap that caps upside." — MacroAlphaHQ
⚪ LOW caliber (1)
📉 h9 bear · score 0.21
ETF outflows, negative Coinbase premium, underwater holders, and whale selling show weak demand and institutional derisking.
- Supporters (4): @Cointelegraph↗(LOW-MED,4p), @SOU_BTC↗(LOW-MED,1p), @CryptoPatel↗(LOW-MED,2p), @LunarCrush↗(MEDIUM-,1p)
- Signals: 14 · Max author share: 0.50 · Novelty: new
- Quote: "Bitcoin ETFs reportedly saw record 30-day outflows, signaling institutional exit pressure." — SOU_BTC
Sentiment — last 14 days
daily mean sentiment, 2026-06-19 → 2026-07-03 · now +0.15 (−1 bearish … +1 bullish)
Who spoke584
| author | grade | trader score | signals | mean sent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @RonSwanonson | C | -1.36 | 126 | +0.61 |
| @CryptoNewsHntrs | C | -1.20 | 125 | +0.16 |
| @scottmelker | C | +0.51 | 106 | +0.12 |
| @CryptoMichNL | B | -0.22 | 104 | +0.35 |
| @WOLF_Bitcoin_ | C | -1.25 | 103 | +0.25 |
| @Cointelegraph | C | -2.08 | 100 | +0.04 |
| @cryptogoos | C | -0.32 | 83 | +0.17 |
| @coinbureau | C | -0.43 | 79 | -0.12 |
| @BitcoinTeacher_ | C | +1.56 | 76 | +0.45 |
| @CryptoPatel | C | +0.25 | 74 | -0.02 |
| @MacroAlphaHQ | A | +1.15 | 67 | -0.28 |
| @AshCrypto | C | +1.06 | 65 | -0.02 |
| @BSCNews | C | -3.03 | 62 | -0.02 |
| @CAGThe3rd | C | -0.92 | 61 | -0.13 |
| @RTB_io | C | +1.32 | 56 | -0.09 |
| @Crypto_Crib_ | C | +0.23 | 51 | +0.05 |
| @CryptosR_Us | C | +0.75 | 51 | +0.28 |
| @Morecryptoonl | C | -1.03 | 50 | -0.21 |
| @Jamyies | C | +0.27 | 48 | +0.14 |
| @BigCheds | C | +1.40 | 47 | -0.18 |
| @DBATTAGLIAYtube | B | -0.50 | 46 | +0.37 |
| @crypto_banter | C | -1.69 | 45 | -0.15 |
| @CryptooIndia | C | -0.73 | 41 | -0.03 |
| @thepowerfulHRV | B | +0.11 | 40 | +0.31 |
| @JRamirezChacon1 | C | +1.67 | 38 | +0.46 |
Recent signals30of 4,413 in 14d — receipts included
| date (PT) | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | @CryptoinsidersS | +0.25 | Bitcoin around $62K below key level; cites Ali Martinez possible bottom. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @epictrades1 | +0.20 | Expects to buy more IBIT/BTC at 55k or lower — Author bought IBIT this week and says they expect to buy more at BTC 55k or lower despite not calling bottom. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @LarkDavis | +0.75 | Cites Kevin O'Leary saying regulatory clarity could trigger the biggest Bitcoin institutional inflow. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @BTCtreasuries | +0.75 | Strategy CEO says Bitcoin will become a global digital reserve asset and MSTR largest holder. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @Morecryptoonl | -0.25 | Says corrective bounce may have started but broader bear structure remains intact. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @BSCNews | +0.05 | Reports BTC crossed $62K again but dropped; asks about $70K. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @CryptosR_Us | +0.45 | Bitcoin ETFs posted $221.7M net inflows, framed as momentum shifting to bulls. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @LarkDavis | +0.35 | Video outline highlights Bitcoin ETF flows flipping, charts, MSTR, trades, and crypto segments. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @CryptooIndia | +0.10 | Reports Bitcoin at $62,000. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @Jamyies | +0.55 | Author suggests Bitcoin Fourth of July fireworks, implying bullish near-term move. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @HejToJeMara | +0.25 | BTC framework expects July move to about 65k as bull trap; weekly close above 70k would turn bullish. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @CryptoMichNL | +0.25 | Frames Saylor's Bitcoin thesis as decades-long despite repeated drawdowns and current weak sentiment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @CryptooIndia | +0.45 | CoinDesk reports whales bought 270,000 BTC worth $16.7B in two weeks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @Fuji__mana | -0.60 | Claims BTC may crash toward $52k while HYPE remains strong. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @BSCNews | +0.10 | CoinGecko trending assets and SOL ecosystem liquidity concentration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @cornety | +0.25 | Discusses rotation between memory/semiconductors, gold/silver and Bitcoin; favors Bitcoin names while semis and BTC rise. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @BankTheTrade | -0.55 | States nothing has changed for Bitcoin and points to 50,000 area next. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @miningstockinfo | +0.10 | Satsuma maintains treasury of 668 BTC and has no current buy or sell plans. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @InversorNovato_ | -0.50 | Compares 2026 performance of IBEX, EuroStoxx, S&P, Nasdaq, gold, silver and Bitcoin. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @CryptoMichNL | +0.80 | Says largest on-chain Bitcoin accumulation ever and Trump crypto support mark start of bull market. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @EngSam0701 | -0.55 | Compares $10K BTC investment in 2026 down 33% versus semis up 95%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @WhiteOakFX | -0.35 | Says rallies will be short lived at 72K after monthly demand was removed and supply created. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @cryptogoos | +0.35 | Cites Bitcoin midterm-year seasonality as hinting at relief in coming weeks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @WhiteOakFX | -0.55 | Says Bitcoin is not bullish after monthly demand zone was taken out. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @CAGThe3rd | -0.25 | Says alts moving before BTC is an indicator of weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @ChrisMMillas | +0.45 | Agrees MSTR can hit $570 if BTC reaches about $200K. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @ClaudioCaparroz | +0.10 | Lists futures, crypto, commodities, FX and bond levels with percentage moves. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @AshCrypto | +0.45 | Bitcoin ETFs bought $221.7M of BTC, largest daily buy in 59 days after selling streak. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @AntonLaVay | +0.25 | Says BTC skew repaired from extreme downside-hedging sentiment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | @MacroAlphaHQ | -0.55 | Says BTC $52,000 floor could break if global M2 contracts through Q3, rejecting cycle-box timing. | · | tweet ↗ |
“Since then” = price move from the close on the signal's date (PT) to the latest close — what happened after they said it, not a backtest. A — means no trading session has closed since the signal yet. Sentiment is our extracted per-tweet score, −1…+1.