Author
@choffstein choffstein
grade Ax.com/choffstein ↗
Rigorous quant founder dissecting multi-asset portfolio mechanics and market structure
Publishes original research and reasoned threads on portfoli
trader score
-0.31
hit rate
71%
mean α
-0.63%
signals 14d
39
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 7 scored bets: 71% hit rate, -0.63% mean alpha, trader score -0.31. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.2% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @choffstein | · | Forecasts AI agents eliminating human-oriented newsletter production and consumption. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @choffstein | · | Presents a constructive thesis for broker-backed onchain swaps and RWA trading architecture. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @choffstein | · | Calls broker-backed swaps infrastructure compelling after a platform gained RWA volume share. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @choffstein | · | Expects decentralized options markets eventually to achieve a breakthrough. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @choffstein | · | Describes several decentralized exchanges bridging crypto and traditional finance as compelling. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @choffstein | · | Presents a framework in which managing drawdowns and options-implied risk improves compounding. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @choffstein | · | Assesses AI as strong on bounded and intelligence-heavy tasks but weaker on judgment-heavy work. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @choffstein | · | Explains that benchmark-like returns imply limited tracking error or active share. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @choffstein | · | Argues a long-ES, short-RTY hedge could improve risk-adjusted returns for managers with size exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @choffstein | · | Says SMID managers benchmarked to broader indexes can incur tracking-error noise from a size tilt. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @choffstein | · | Argues long-only active managers are forced into an uncompensated size-factor bet. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | META | @choffstein | -0.20 | Dismissively questions whether people still care about Meta's Facebook platform. | -10.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | AMZN | @choffstein | +0.05 | Notes Amazon has a Shopping MCP product. | -2.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @choffstein | · | Explains why leverage can raise mean returns while driving median terminal wealth toward zero. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | LQDH | @choffstein | +0.30 | Reports positive year-to-date returns for two credit ETFs. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.