Author
@choffstein choffstein
grade Ax.com/choffstein ↗
Rigorous quant founder dissecting multi-asset portfolio mechanics and market structure
Publishes original research and reasoned threads on portfoli
trader score
+1.24
hit rate
100%
mean α
+0.61%
signals 14d
15
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 6 scored bets: 100% hit rate, +0.61% mean alpha, trader score +1.24. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.0% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | CTA | @choffstein | -0.35 | Reports major portfolio liquidation and removal of sub-adviser Altis from CTA's website. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | QQQ | @choffstein | -0.25 | Questions the investment rationale for buying an index based primarily on Nasdaq listing venue. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @choffstein | · | Observes low trading volume and open interest for an unnamed Lighter product. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @choffstein | · | Explains Australian super funds' growing use of overlays and portable alpha under benchmark-test pressure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @choffstein | · | Author discloses an approximate 5-10% overlay plus a large trend-following overlay. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @choffstein | · | Questions a multi-asset index using its disclosed backtest and hindsight-designed methodology. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @choffstein | · | Notes a low quoted financing rate and suspects costs are embedded in swap entry and exit. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | AVGV | @choffstein | +0.20 | Expresses acceptance of combining AVGV with a trend strategy, without trade mechanics. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @choffstein | · | Notes an internally promoted gold-plus-trend strategy maintained for more than a year. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @choffstein | · | Author reports flagship performance of 19.5% annualized since inception. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | LIT | @choffstein | +0.40 | Discloses continued ownership of LIT since its token-generation event. | +2.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @choffstein | · | Explains that perpetual-futures roll exposure is embedded in funding rates rather than eliminated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @choffstein | · | Says oil perpetuals track front-month futures and embed roll in funding costs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @choffstein | · | Argues the discussed structure has tight pricing and is neither obscure nor illiquid. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @choffstein | · | Explains that defined-outcome products use exchange-traded, centrally cleared FLEX options. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.