@choffstein choffstein
Rigorous quant founder dissecting multi-asset portfolio mechanics and market structure
Publishes original research and reasoned threads on portfoli
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 5 scored bets: 100% hit rate, +0.85% mean alpha, trader score +1.00. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.5% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
Choffstein is focused on crypto derivatives market structure, especially perps, leverage, Hyperliquid, Lighter, and licensing pathways, with a disclosed private Lighter investment. The distinctive read is constructive on high-leverage perps when execution and counterparty structure are sound, while skeptical that US access is straightforward if perps are treated as swaps. Public-market ticker content is sparse, limited to BTC market-structure framing and SPY volatility/base-rate context rather than directional equity calls.
The author’s concentration sits in crypto derivatives market structure, with repeated discussion of perps, leverage, licensing, Hyperliquid, and private Lighter. There is no public CALL_DIRECTIONAL trade and no clear flip; the only disclosed position is a held private Lighter investment. Public ticker exposure is light, with BTC used for crypto market-structure context and SPY for volatility, leverage, and equity-beta portfolio framing.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | RSIT | @choffstein | +0.30 | Return Stacked ETF RSIT crossed $50M in AUM. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @choffstein | · | Author discloses being an equity investor in a token-related project, but ticker/token context absent. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPX | @choffstein | +0.00 | Compares 3-month SPX box spread rates at 449bp to S&P futures around SOFR+95 at 463bp. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @choffstein | · | Discusses using futures and enhanced cash to combine equity beta with managed futures exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IVV | @choffstein | +0.00 | Explains structure for adding S&P 500 beta to managed futures using IVV and futures. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @choffstein | · | Says financing rates have fallen from days ago but remain higher than months ago. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | LIT | @choffstein | +0.25 | Discusses possible Lighter token burns and future buybacks for incentives with tax considerations. | -2.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @choffstein | · | Author discloses being an investor in private Lighter; no public ticker emitted. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | LIT | @choffstein | +0.30 | Explains token burn vs buyback mechanics and tax reasons that could support LIT holders. | -2.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | SPCX | @choffstein | -0.10 | Mentions SPCX and levered ETF explanations and questions whether unwind will be clean. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @choffstein | · | Quantifies required return to maintain distance above a 200-day moving average. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @choffstein | · | Long-form discussion of portable alpha, leverage, alternatives, and portfolio design. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @choffstein | · | Notes GMO forecasts have shown negative or near-zero expected real returns for US large-cap stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @choffstein | · | Criticizes inconsistent bearish capital market assumptions and melt-up claims. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @choffstein | · | Discusses research on adding correlated markets to trend programs and signal diversification. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.