@convequity convequity
Pseudonymous deep-research team mapping AI optics/compute supply-chain bottlenecks to obscure names
Publish long-form, heavily-tickered fundamental theses ident
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +1.75% mean alpha, trader score +2.67. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.4% since posting (mean over 22 mentions with price data).
Convequity is focused on AI infrastructure bottlenecks, especially orbital data centers, SpaceX value creation, Tower Semi photonics foundry leverage, and Soitec’s Photonic SOI position. The distinctive read is that AI valuations do not yet screen as bubble-like while physical constraints in power, regulation, and photonics supply chains define the better opportunities. There are no explicit position disclosures or directional trade calls in this window.
No positions disclosed this window — everything below is commentary, not book talk.
| claim | ticker | dir | strength | signals | skin | theme | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX gains incremental value as Starship cost declines and orbital AI centers solve power and regulatory bottlenecks | SPCX | ▲ | 0.27 | 2 | · | Orbital AI infrastructure bottle | tweet ↗ |
| AI Bubble Barometer shows stable ROIC/WACC and valuation metrics with no AI bubble signal | CRWV | ▲ | 0.16 | 6 | · | AI valuation bubble barometer re | tweet ↗ |
| Large AI platform valuations are not flashing bubble risk under the author’s framework | MSFT | ▲ | 0.14 | 5 | · | AI valuation bubble barometer re | tweet ↗ |
| Soitec benefits because high-volume CPO and NPO engines rely on Photonic SOI substrates | SOI.PA | ▲ | 0.10 | 3 | · | Photonic SOI supply chain value | tweet ↗ |
| Tower Semi PH18 is framed as a leading SiPh foundry for orbital AI infrastructure | TSEM | ▲ | 0.04 | 4 | · | Orbital AI infrastructure bottle | tweet ↗ |
| Chinese memory supply ramp may mark a peak signal for DRAM and NAND pricing incumbents | MU | ▼ | 0.00 | 2 | · | AI macro productivity and memory | tweet ↗ |
The author’s attention is concentrated on AI infrastructure bottlenecks, with bullish emphasis on SpaceX-linked orbital compute, Tower Semi photonics capacity, and Soitec’s Photonic SOI position. The AI bubble framework is also constructive, arguing valuation and ROIC/WACC metrics remain stable across major AI names. No explicit adds, trims, exits, or position disclosures appear in the supplied signals.
| ticker | signals | sentiment | calls | pos | news | action | alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 5 | +0.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| AMZN | 4 | +0.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| META | 4 | +0.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPCX | 3 | +0.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| AVGO | 3 | +0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| SOI.PA | 3 | +0.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| ORCL | 2 | +0.30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | commentary only |
| NVDA | 2 | -0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| LITE | 2 | +0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| MSFT | 2 | +0.30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | commentary only |
| SNOW | 2 | -0.30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | commentary only |
| CRWV | 2 | +0.30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | commentary only |
| AIXA | 2 | +0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TSEM | 1 | +0.80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| MRVL | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SMCI | 1 | +0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| MU | 1 | -0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @convequity | · | Argues generative AI is far from bubble territory using ROIC/WACC and EV/IC metrics. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | FLY | @convequity | +0.35 | Author discloses RKLB and FLY are in portfolio and argues Starship-driven demand can still benefit them. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | RKLB | @convequity | +0.45 | Author discloses RKLB and FLY are in portfolio and argues Starship-driven demand can still benefit them. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | SPCX | @convequity | -0.20 | Author discloses RKLB and FLY are in portfolio and argues Starship-driven demand can still benefit them. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSM | @convequity | -0.35 | Discloses exit from TSM and rotation into UMC and GFS as second-order supply-constrained trade. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | UMC | @convequity | +0.55 | Discloses exit from TSM and rotation into UMC and GFS as second-order supply-constrained trade. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | GFS | @convequity | +0.55 | Discloses exit from TSM and rotation into UMC and GFS as second-order supply-constrained trade. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | INTC | @convequity | +0.35 | Trimmed NVDA modestly while keeping core AI beta exposure and preferring supply-chain names. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSLA | @convequity | +0.25 | Trimmed NVDA modestly while keeping core AI beta exposure and preferring supply-chain names. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSEM | @convequity | +0.35 | Trimmed NVDA modestly while keeping core AI beta exposure and preferring supply-chain names. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @convequity | +0.35 | Trimmed NVDA modestly while keeping core AI beta exposure and preferring supply-chain names. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | PLTR | @convequity | +0.65 | Long-term PLTR bullish thesis versus SNOW with AI platform/moat and valuation-gap discussion. | +2.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SNOW | @convequity | +0.25 | Long-term PLTR bullish thesis versus SNOW with AI platform/moat and valuation-gap discussion. | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | OSCR | @convequity | +0.55 | Argues overlooked consumer/ecommerce winners trade at attractive multiples despite strong growth. | +0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MELI | @convequity | +0.55 | Argues overlooked consumer/ecommerce winners trade at attractive multiples despite strong growth. | +1.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.