@Convertbond Convertbond
Senior macro strategist arguing hard assets beat financial assets in a new rate regime
Publishes original, data-dense macro frameworks on inflation
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, +0.20% mean alpha, trader score +0.37. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.6% since posting (mean over 23 mentions with price data).
Convertbond is leaning hard-asset bullish and mega-cap-tech bearish, using deficits, inflation risk, AI capex, and commodity scarcity as the core framework. The distinctive read is that AI and data-center buildout are inflationary and capital-intensive, while hard assets such as gold miners and copper-linked commodities are better exposures than Mag7 financial assets. No explicit position flip or trade disclosure appears in the window; the tone is consistently skeptical toward tech and constructive on commodities.
The author is consistently bearish on mega-cap tech and financial assets while favoring hard assets, gold miners, copper scarcity, and commodity-linked infrastructure. There are no CALL_DIRECTIONAL or POSITION_DISCLOSURE signals, so no adds, trims, exits, or explicit trade actions can be cited. Concentration sits in macro-hard-asset framing and Mag7 skepticism rather than a single pump-risk ticker.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @Convertbond | · | Frames AI from 2024-2027 as a malinvestment boom alongside prior bubbles. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | · | @Convertbond | · | Mentions month-end and quarter-end mono unwind without specific ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | HD | @Convertbond | +0.00 | Points to relative comparisons of MCD and HD versus SPY. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | MCD | @Convertbond | +0.00 | Points to relative comparisons of MCD and HD versus SPY. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | SPY | @Convertbond | +0.00 | Points to relative comparisons of MCD and HD versus SPY. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Convertbond | · | SNAP benefits grew 217% from 2006 to 2026 versus 14.7% population growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Convertbond | · | Adjusted unemployment using 2000 LFPR would be about 12.1% versus 4.3% official U-3. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Convertbond | · | Warns crowded AI trade unwind as software/semi swings reach historic intensity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SOXX | @Convertbond | -0.65 | Long software vs short semiconductors spread up nearly 10% amid rotation. | -5.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IGV | @Convertbond | +0.65 | Long software vs short semiconductors spread up nearly 10% amid rotation. | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Convertbond | · | Sarcastically rejects idea that DRAM commodities are different this time. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Convertbond | · | Calls 2022-2030 a sustained inflation and bond yield regime driven by deglobalization and reshoring. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @Convertbond | · | Author pushes back on rate hike talk, citing real math but without specifics. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | MAGS | @Convertbond | -0.55 | Mag7 cash burn and drawdowns of 13-36% are framed negatively. | +5.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | BTC | @Convertbond | -0.45 | Author criticizes crypto promotion at highs and silence at lows. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.