Author
@Convertbond Convertbond
grade Ax.com/Convertbond ↗
Senior macro strategist arguing hard assets beat financial assets in a new rate regime
Publishes original, data-dense macro frameworks on inflation
trader score
-0.12
hit rate
50%
mean α
-0.03%
signals 14d
39
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -0.03% mean alpha, trader score -0.12. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.5% since posting (mean over 12 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | · | @Convertbond | · | Persistent intervention, fiscal deficits, AI capex and supply disruption are framed as inflationary. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @Convertbond | -0.70 | Argues Nvidia's flat performance since October shows the market rejects management's narrative. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | NVDA | @Convertbond | -0.10 | COPX materially outperformed Nvidia in 2026 and since October. | +2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | COPX | @Convertbond | +0.55 | COPX materially outperformed Nvidia in 2026 and since October. | -2.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @Convertbond | · | Invokes a political-cycle framework arguing democracy is progressing toward dependence and dictatorship. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @Convertbond | · | Reports US public debt surpassing a record $40T and argues portfolios must adapt. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @Convertbond | · | Frames an unspecified Bessent measure as a credible intervention threat rather than current large buying. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @Convertbond | · | Explicitly forecasts a lower US dollar and attributes that goal to policymakers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @Convertbond | · | Calls the policy move the start of soft yield-curve control and a regime change. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @Convertbond | · | Interprets Treasury buybacks and falling long yields as financial repression favoring hard assets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @Convertbond | · | Bloomberg data reportedly show short interest fell from 25M to 13M shares. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @Convertbond | · | Record investment-grade issuance is framed as crowding out Treasury funding. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @Convertbond | · | Chart compares U.S. 10-year real yields with Hormuz tanker traffic. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @Convertbond | · | A monthly MACD break is cited as evidence of a new bear phase for bonds. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @Convertbond | · | A 100bp yield move today is said to equal the destructive impact of 400bp in the 1990s. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.