Author
@Convertbond Convertbond
grade Ax.com/Convertbond ↗
Senior macro strategist arguing hard assets beat financial assets in a new rate regime
Publishes original, data-dense macro frameworks on inflation
trader score
-0.30
hit rate
50%
mean α
-0.23%
signals 14d
29
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -0.23% mean alpha, trader score -0.30. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.9% since posting (mean over 13 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | IGV | @Convertbond | -0.70 | Argues enterprises are shifting to cheaper open-source AI, putting software shares at risk. | +6.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @Convertbond | · | Links deficits and AI capex to producer-price inflation as BCOM and PPI converge. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @Convertbond | -0.35 | Flags CoreWeave for institutional scrutiny focused on its cost of capital. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @Convertbond | · | Advises aligning with Federal Reserve policy, though the current direction is unstated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | CRWV | @Convertbond | +0.00 | Flags CRWV through the convertible market as a leading-indicator alert without stating direction. | -17.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @Convertbond | · | Get long hard assets as policy responses sustain elevated inflation. — Author explicitly recommends long exposure to hard assets under persistent inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | CRWV | @Convertbond | -0.80 | Author calls CRWV a dumpster fire after it reached 14%, citing data-center financing. | -30.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | CRWV | @Convertbond | -0.65 | The author flags CRWV and record convertible issuance as forward default-risk warnings. | -32.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @Convertbond | · | Sees an exceptional six-month opportunity from high stocks and unusually low correlations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @Convertbond | · | Contrasts nearly $15T of deficit spending with Treasury auction sizes and debt-to-GDP. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | SOXX | @Convertbond | -0.25 | Software equities and credit are outperforming semiconductors, with IGV at record highs. | -14.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | IGV | @Convertbond | +0.60 | Software equities and credit are outperforming semiconductors, with IGV at record highs. | -1.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @Convertbond | · | Views the gold selloff as an attractive opportunity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @Convertbond | · | Compares today's 46.3 consumer sentiment with 68.2 before the 2010 midterms and the subsequent seat loss. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @Convertbond | · | Notes consumer sentiment near 46 is two standard deviations below its 50-year mean. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.